Advice and Scenarios Database



Herring (Clupea harengus) in subdivisions 25-29 and 32, excluding the Gulf of Riga (central Baltic Sea)
StockCode
her.27.25-2932
Assessment Year
2023
Stock Category
1
Purpose
Advice
Published
Stock Assessment Key
17816
Link to Advice Sheet
https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.advice.21820506.v1






Catch scenarios


Basis
Total catch (2024)
Fishing mortality F2024/FMSY
Stock Size B2025/MSY Btrigger
% Probability of SSB (2025) less than Blim ^
Probability of SSB (2025) less than MSY Btrigger(%) ^
% SSB change*
% Advice change **
2024 2024 2025 2025 2025 2025 2024
(t) (ratio) (ratio) (%) (%) (%) (%)
ICES Basis Advice
EU MAP ^^: F = FMSY x SSB2024/MSY Btrigger 52549 0.46 0.6 31 92 29 -45
EU MAP ^^: F = MAP range Flower × SSB2024/MSY Btrigger 41706 0.36 0.61 29 91 31 -41
EU MAP^^^: P(SSB2025 < Blim) > 5 % ~ F = 0 0 0 0.64 22 88 39 -100
Other scenarios
FMSY 108434 1 0.55 40 95 19 13
Flower 82577 0.75 0.57 35 94 24 18
Fupper 126785 1.21 0.54 43 96 15 33
EU MAP ^^: F=MAP range Fupper × SSB2024/MSY Btrigger 62558 0.56 0.59 33 93 27 -35
F=Fpa × SSB2024/MSY Btrigger 62558 0.56 0.59 33 93 27 -35
SSB (2025)=Blim 166822 1.66 0.5 49 98 -0.54 74
SSB (2025)=Bpa #
SSB (2025)=MSYBtrigger #
SSB (2025)=SSB (2024) 208527 2.2 0.47 56 99 -1.6 118
F=F2023 116775 1.103 0.55 40 96 15 22




Symbol Footnotes
# The Bpa, and MSY Btrigger options were left blank because Bpa, and MSY Btrigger cannot be achieved in 2025 even with zero catch in 2024.
* SSB 2025 relative to SSB 2024.
** Advice values for 2024 relative to the corresponding 2023 values (EU MAP advice of 95 643 [FMSY], 95 643  [Fupper] and 70 130 [Flower] tonnes, respectively; other values are relative to 95 643 tonnes).
^ The probability of SSB being below SSB reference points in 2025. This probability relates to the short-term probability of SSB less than Blim and MSY Btrigger and is not comparable to the long-term probability of SSB less than Blim and MSY Btrigger tested in simulations when estimating fishing mortality reference points.
^^ MAP multiannual plan (EU, 2016, 2019).^ Following the EU MAP plan when the probability of SSB (2025) less than Blim is greater than 5 %.