Catch scenarios

Basis	Total catch	Probability SSB Blim*	Median SSB*	HR**	% SSB change***	% TAC change^	% Advice change
	2019	2019	2019	2019	2019	2019	2019
	(t)	(t)	(t)	(t)	(%)	(%)	(%)
ICES Basis Advice
Harvest control rule in the management strategy^^	33000	0.001	135155	0.24	-7.5	0	0
Other scenarios
HR (2019)= 0	0	0.001	148743	0	1.76	-100	-100
HR (2019)= 0	10000	0.001	144668	0.069	-1.03	-70	-70
HR (2019)= 0	20000	0.001	140557	0.142	-3.8	-39	-39
HR(2019)= HR(2018)	26774	0.001	137745	0.194	-5.8	-19	-19
HR(2019)= HR(2018)	30000	0.001	136404	0.22	-6.7	-9.1	-9.1
HR(2019)= HR(2018)	40000	0.001	132230	0.3	-9.5	21	21
HR(2019)= HR(2018)	50000	0.001	128030	0.39	-12.4	52	52

Symbol	Footnotes
*	The SSB corresponds to mid-May, with 60% of the catch assumed to be taken in the first semester.
**	Harvest rate (HR) is calculated as Catch/(Median SSB).
***	SSB (2019) relative to SSB (2018).
^	Catch (2019) relative to the 2018 TAC (33 000 t).
^^	Because SSB (2019) is projected to be above 89 000 t, the management strategy option is based on the upper bound for the TAC (33 000 t).