Catch scenarios

Basis	Total catch	Probability of SSB Blim *based on stochastic short-term forecast	SSB*	HR**	% SSB change***	% TAC change^	% Advice change^^
	2020	2020	2020	2020	2020	2020	2020
	(t)	(t)	(t)	(t)	(%)	(%)	(%)
ICES Basis Advice
Harvest control rule in the management strategy	31892	0.001	86229	0.37	-40	-3.4	-3.4
Other scenarios
HR (2020)= 0	0	0.001	99254	0	-31	-100	-100
HR(2020)= HR(2019)	17230	0.001	92379	0.184	-36	-49	-49
Catch (2020) = 10000	10000	0.001	95221	0.105	-34	-70	-70
Catch (2020) = 20000	20000	0.001	91142	0.22	-37	-39	-39
Catch (2020) = 30000	30000	0.001	87016	0.35	-40	-9.1	-9.1
Catch (2020) = 40000	40000	0.001	82839	0.48	-43	21	21
Catch (2020) = 50000	50000	0.001	78608	0.64	-46	52	52

Symbol	Footnotes
*	The SSB corresponds to mid-May, with 60% of the catch assumed to be taken in the first six months of the year.
**	Harvest rate (HR) is calculated as Catch/SSB.
***	SSB (2020) relative to SSB (2019).
^	Catch (2020) relative to the 2019 TAC (33 000 t).
^^	Advice for 2020 relative to advice for 2019 (33 000 t).