Catch scenarios

Basis	Total catch	Ftotal	SSB	% SSB change*	% TAC change**	% Advice change***
	2021	2021	2022	2022	2022	2022
	(t)	(ratio)	(t)	(%)	(%)	(%)
ICES Basis Advice
Management plan ^	885600	0.47	1171141	-15	20	28
Other scenarios
MSY approach: FMSY	774860	0.4	1257564	-8	5	12
Management plan applied to 2020 advice^^	827606	0.43	1216341	-11	12	20
F = 0	0	0	1898191	38	-100	-100
F = F2020	673954	0.3381	1337566	-3	-9	-2
Fpa	774860	0.4	1257564	-8	5	12
Flim	1236791	0.74	907720	-34	68	79

Symbol	Footnotes
*	SSB 2022 relative to SSB 2021.
**	Advice value for 2021 relative to TAC 2020 (738000 tonnes).
***	Advice value for 2021 relative to the advice value for 2020 (689672 tonnes).
^	Since SSB in 2021 is between 2 × Bpa = 920000 tonnes and 3 × Bpa = 1380000 tonnes, F = 0.4 × (1 + 0.5 × (1373 - 920)/460) = 0.597 is used in the 3-year prediction, giving catches of 1059716, 866192, and 745559 tonnes in 2021, 2022, and 2023, respectively. The average of this is 890489 tonnes. According to the harvest control rule (HCR), the maximum increase in TAC is limited by 20%, giving a catch of 885600 tonnes, which corresponds to an F of 0.47 in 2021.
^^	Applying the 20% limitation to the 2020 advice and not to the 2020 TAC.