Advice and Scenarios Database



Cod (Gadus morhua) in Subarea 4, Division 7.d, and Subdivision 20 (North Sea, eastern English Channel, Skagerrak)
StockCode
cod.27.47d20
Assessment Year
2021
Stock Category
1
Purpose
Advice
Published
Stock Assessment Key
14324
Link to Advice Sheet
https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.advice.7746






Catch scenarios


Basis
Total catch
Projected landings*
Projected discards**
Ftotal (ages 2–4)
Fprojected landings (ages 2–4)
Fprojected discards (ages 2–4)
SSB
% SSB change***
% TAC change^
% advice change^^
% Probability of falling below Blim in 2023
2022 2022 2022 2022 2022 2022 2023 2022 2022 2022 2023
(t) (t) (t) (ratio) (ratio) (ratio) (t) (%) (%) (%) (%)
ICES Basis Advice
MSY approach: FMSY × SSB (2022) /MSY Btrigger 14276 11779 2497 0.144 0.115 0.029 75484 53 -10.3 -3.2 37
Other scenarios
F = FMSY lower × SSB (2022) /MSY Btrigger 9701 8011 1690 0.095 0.076 0.019 79425 61 -39 -34 28
F = 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 87254 77 -100 -100 13.7
Fpa 41914 34250 7664 0.49 0.39 0.097 53444 8.1 163 184 86
Flim 47805 38801 9004 0.58 0.46 0.115 49118 -0.64 200 220 92
SSB (2023) = Blim 21340 17598 3742 0.22 0.178 0.044 69841 41 34 45 50
SSB (2023) = MSY Btrigger = Bpa#
TAC (2021) -20% 12729 10493 2236 0.127 0.102 0.025 76741 55 -20 -13.7 35
TAC (2021) -15% 13524 11158 2366 0.135 0.109 0.026 76100 54 -15 -8.3 36
TAC (2021) -10% 14320 11816 2504 0.144 0.115 0.029 75445 53 -10 -2.9 37
TAC (2021) -5% 15116 12473 2643 0.153 0.122 0.031 74779 51 -5 2.4 38
TAC (2021) 15912 13131 2781 0.161 0.129 0.032 74116 50 0 7.8 40
TAC (2021) +5% 16707 13788 2919 0.17 0.136 0.034 73494 49 5 13.2 41
TAC (2021) +10% 17502 14447 3055 0.179 0.144 0.035 72843 47 10 18.6 43
TAC (2021) +15% 18298 15112 3186 0.188 0.151 0.037 72197 46 15 24 45
TAC (2021) +20% 19093 15760 3333 0.197 0.158 0.039 71572 45 20 29 47
F = F2021 33282 27259 6023 0.37 0.3 0.073 60299 22 109 126 75
F = FMSY lower 18130 14971 3159 0.186 0.149 0.037 72341 46 13.9 23 44
F = FMSY 26169 21575 4594 0.28 0.22 0.055 65905 33 64 77 60
F = FMSY upper 39128 31980 7148 0.45 0.36 0.089 55565 12.4 146 165 84




Symbol Footnotes
* Marketable landings.
** Including below minimum size (BMS) landings. assuming recent discard rate.
*** SSB 2023 relative to SSB 2022.
# Bpa and MSY Btrigger cannot be achieved in 2023. even with zero catches.
^ Total catch in 2022 relative to TAC in 2021: North Sea (13 246 t) + Skagerrak (1893 t) + eastern English Channel (772 t) = 15 911 t.
^^ Total catch in 2022 relative to advice value for 2021 (14 755 t).