Catch scenarios

Basis	Total catch	Projected landings	Projected discards	Ftotal	Fprojected landings	Fprojected discards	SSB	% SSB change*	% advice change^
	2022	2022	2022	2022	2022	2022	2023	2023	2023
	(t)	(t)	(t)	(ratio)	(ratio)	(ratio)	(t)	(%)	(%)
ICES Basis Advice
MSY approach: FMSY	5825	5052	773	0.168	0.135	0.033	44783	51	-6.6
Other scenarios
NEAFC proposed management strategy1^^	6335	5493	842	0.184	0.1479	0.0361	44144	49	1.54
NEAFC proposed management strategy2^^^	6700	5809	891	0.195	0.157	0.0384	43687	47	7.4
F=0	0	0	0	0	0	0	52100	75	-100
Fpa	12774	11040	1734	0.41	0.33	0.0805	36113	22	105
Flim	25411	21770	3641	1.06	0.85	0.208	20605	-31	307
SSB2023=Blim	41377	34623	6754	3.8	3.05	0.7439	2474	-92	563
SSB2023=Bpa=MSYBtrigger	40118	33680	6438	3.23	2.6	0.6346	3712	-88	543
SSB2023=SSB2022	17947	15462	2485	0.63	0.51	0.1241	29717	0	188
F=F2021	7954	6902	1052	0.23	0.187	0.046	42684	44	27
F=MAP # FMSYlower	3745	3251	494	0.105	0.084	0.021	47391	59	-40
F=MAP # FMSYupper	8944	7746	1198	0.27	0.22	0.053	40883	38	43

Symbol	Footnotes
*	SSB 2023 relative to SSB 2022.
#	EU multiannual plan (MAP) for the Western Waters (EU, 2019).
^	Advice value for 2022 relative to the advice value for 2021 (6239 tonnes).
^^	TACFHCR is derived from a two-step process: FMSY = 0.168 followed by the TAC constraint “a”, where the TAC2022 = TACFMSY + 0.2 × (TAC2021-TACFMSY). To calculate the catch scenario of the proposed management strategy, ICES uses the advised catches for 2021 as the TAC2021; the formula for TAC2022, therefore, corresponds to catches of 5825 + 0.2 × (8375-5825) =6335 tonnes.
^^^	MSY with TAC constraint “b”, which implies no more than 20% below or 25% above of the TAC of preceding year (TACy-1).