Catch scenarios

Basis	Total catch	Probability of SSB* Blim based on stochastic short-term forecast	SSB*	HR**	% SSB change***	% TAC change^	% advice change^^
	2022	2022	2022	2022	2022	2022	2022
	(t)	(t)	(t)	(t)	(%)	(%)	(%)
ICES Basis Advice
Harvest control rule in the management plan	33000	0.001	135124	0.24	-34	0	0
Other scenarios
HR (2022)=0	0	0.001	148521	0	-28	-100	-100
HR (2022)=HR (2021)	19086	0.001	140812	0.136	-32	-42	-42
Catch (2022)=10000	10000	0.001	144496	0.069	-30	-70	-70
Catch (2022)=20000	20000	0.001	140441	0.142	-32	-39	-39
Catch (2022)=30000	30000	0.001	136355	0.22	-34	-9	-9
Catch (2022)=40000	40000	0.001	132237	0.3	-36	21	21
Catch (2022)=50000	50000	0.001	128087	0.39	-38	52	52

Symbol	Footnotes
*	SSB corresponds to mid-May estimate, with 60% of the catch assumed to be taken in the first six months of the year.
**	Harvest rate (HR) is calculated as catch / SSB.
***	SSB (2022) relative to SSB (2021).
^	Catch (2022) relative to the 2021 TAC (33 000 tonnes).
^^	Advice for 2022 relative to advice for 2021 (33 000 tonnes).