Catch scenarios

Basis	Total catch	Probability of SSB* Blim based on stochastic short-term forecast	SSB*	HR**	% SSB change***	% TAC change^	% advice change^^
	2021	2021	2021	2021	2021	2021	2021
	(t)	(t)	(t)	(t)	(%)	(%)	(%)
ICES Basis Advice
Harvest control rule in the management strategy	33000	0.001	118900	0.28	-32	3.5	3.5
Other scenarios
HR (2021)=0	0	0.001	132368	0	-24	-100	-100
HR (2021)=HR (2020)	18562	0.001	124840	0.149	-28	-42	-42
Catch (2021)=10000	10000	0.001	128327	0.078	-26	-69	-69
Catch (2021)=20000	20000	0.001	124251	0.161	-29	-37	-37
Catch (2021)=30000	30000	0.001	120141	0.25	-31	-6	-6
Catch (2021)=40000	40000	0.001	115991	0.35	-34	25	25
Catch (2021)=50000	50000	0.001	111803	0.45	-36	57	57

Symbol	Footnotes
*	SSB corresponds to mid-May estimate, with 60% of the catch assumed to be taken in the first six months of the year.
**	Harvest rate (HR) is calculated as catch/SSB.
***	SSB (2021) relative to SSB (2020).
^	Catch (2021) relative to the 2020 TAC (31 892 t).
^^	Advice for 2021 relative to advice for 2020 (31 892 t).