Advice and Scenarios Database



Cod (Gadus morhua) in Subarea 4, Division 7.d, and Subdivision 20 (North Sea, eastern English Channel, Skagerrak)
StockCode
cod.27.47d20
Assessment Year
2018
Stock Category
1
Purpose
Advice
Published
Stock Assessment Key
9940
Link to Advice Sheet
https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.pub.4436






Catch scenarios


Basis
Total catch
Wanted catch*
Unwanted catch*
Ftotal
Fwanted
Funwanted
SSB
% SSB change**
% TAC change***
% Advice change^
2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2020 2020 2020 2020
(t) (t) (t) (ratio) (ratio) (ratio) (t) (%) (%) (%)
ICES Basis Advice
MSY approach: FMSY SSB(2019)/MSY Btrigger 28204 22331 5873 0.24 0.17 0.07 141896 22 -47 -47
Other scenarios
F = MAP^^ FMSY lower SSB(2019)/MSYBtrigger 18759 14900 3859 0.154 0.109 0.045 152399 31 -65 -65
EU Norway Management Strategy 42307 33357 8950 0.38 0.27 0.111 126249 8.5 -20 -20
F = 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 173375 49 -100 -100
Fpa 43081 33947 9134 0.39 0.28 0.113 125436 7.8 -18.5 -18.8
Flim 56130 44231 11899 0.54 0.38 0.157 111247 -4.4 6.1 5.8
SSB (2020) = Blim 60232 47418 12814 0.59 0.42 0.172 107000 -8.1 13.9 13.5
SSB (2020) = Bpa 20989 16647 4342 0.174 0.123 0.051 150000 29 -60 -60
SSB (2020) = MSYBtrigger 20989 16647 4342 0.174 0.123 0.051 150000 29 -60 -60
TAC (2018) 20% 42307 33357 8950 0.38 0.27 0.111 126249 8.5 -20 -20
TAC (2018) 15% 44951 35414 9537 0.41 0.29 0.119 123296 5.9 -15 -15.3
TAC (2018) 10% 47596 37493 10103 0.44 0.31 0.127 120469 3.5 -10 -10.3
TAC (2018) 5% 50240 39556 10684 0.47 0.33 0.137 117588 1.04 -5 -5.3
Constant TAC 52884 41655 11229 0.5 0.36 0.146 114646 -1.49 0 -0.33
TAC (2018) + 5% 55528 43760 11768 0.53 0.38 0.155 111869 -3.9 5 4.7
TAC (2018) + 10% 58172 45801 12371 0.56 0.4 0.164 109085 -6.3 10 9.6
TAC (2018) + 15% 60817 47895 12922 0.6 0.42 0.174 106397 -8.6 15 14.6
TAC (2018) + 20% 63460 49989 13471 0.63 0.45 0.185 103620 -11 20 19.6
F = F2018 48422 38138 10284 0.45 0.32 0.131 119592 2.8 -8.4 -8.7
F=FMSY lower 23669 18765 4904 0.198 0.14 0.058 147011 26 -55 -55
F = FMSY 35358 27950 7408 0.31 0.22 0.09 133964 15.1 -33 -33
A: Max. 79465 0.888 83100 -29 50 50
B: Min. 26674 0.228 139421 20 -50 -50
C: COD 27947 0.241 138014 19 -47 -47
D: SQ effort 44956 0.417 119411 2.6 -15 -15
E: Value 46320 0.432 117937 1.34 -12.4 -12.7
F: Range[1][2] 27637 0.231 83100 -29 -48 -48




Symbol Footnotes
* Wanted and unwanted catch are used to describe fish that would be landed and discarded in the absence of the EU landing obligation, based on discard rate estimates for 2017.
** SSB 2020 relative to SSB 2019.
*** Catch in 2019 relative to TAC in 2018: North Sea (43 156 t) + Skagerrak (7995 t) + Eastern English Channel (1733 t) = 52 884 t.
^ Total catch 2019 relative to advice value 2018 (53 058 t).
^^ Proposed EU multiannual plan (MAP) for the North Sea (EU, 2016).
^^^ Other scenarios do not include FMSY upper because SSB(2019) is less than MSY Btrigger.
A. Maximum scenario: Each fleet stops fishing when its last stock share is exhausted.
B. Minimum scenario: Each fleet stops fishing when its first stock share is exhausted.
C. COD: Each fleet stops fishing when its individual cod share is exhausted.
D. SQ (status quo) effort scenario: The effort of each fleet in 2017 and 2018 is as in 2016.
E. Value scenario: The effort of each fleet is equal to the weighted average of the efforts required to catch the fleet s quota share of each of the stocks, where the weights are the relative catch values of each stock in the fleet s portfolio.
F. Range scenario: The potential for TAC mismatches in 2018 are minimized within the FMSY range, for the demersal fish stocks for which such a range is available (cod.27.47d20, had.27.46a20, pok.27.3a46, ple.27.420, ple.27.7d, sol.27.4, sol.27.7d, whg.27.47d).