Catch scenarios

Basis	Division 7.d plaice stock Total catch^	Division 7.d plaice stock Wanted catch*	Division 7.d plaice stock Unwanted catch*	Division 7.d plaice stock Ftotal	Division 7.d plaice stock Fwanted	Division 7.d plaice stock Funwanted	Division 7.d plaice stock SSB	Division 7.d plaice stock % SSB change **	Division 7.d plaice stock % change in wanted catch ***	Division 7.d plaice stock % advice change$	Plaice in Division 7.d # Total catch	Plaice in Division 7.d # Wanted catch*	Plaice in Division 7.d # Unwanted catch*	Plaice in Division 7.d # % change in wanted catch^^	Plaice in Division 7.d # % change in the 7.d portion of the TAC ##	Plaice in Division 7.d # % advice change ###
	2019	2019	2019	2019	2019	2019	2020	2020	2020	2020	2019	2019	2019	2020	2020	2020
	(t)	(t)	(t)	(ratio)	(ratio)	(ratio)	(t)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(t)	(t)	(t)	(%)	(%)	(%)
ICES Basis Advice
ICES MSY approach (FMSY)	7864	4878	2986	0.25	0.117	0.133	37200	-12.3	32	-26	9225	5722	3503	24	17.2	-25
Other scenarios
F= FMSY lower	5670	3509	2162	0.175	0.082	0.093	39571	-6.7	-4.9	-46	6651	4116	2536	-10.8	-15.5	-46
F= FMSY upper	10435	6491	3944	0.344	0.161	0.183	34455	-18.8	76	-1.48	12239	7614	4626	65	55	-1.12
F = 0	0	0	0	0	0	0	45814	8	-100	-100	0	0	0	-100	-100	-100
Fpa	10853	6755	4099	0.36	0.169	0.191	34012	-19.8	83	2.5	12731	7923	4808	72	62	2.9
Flim	14302	8936	5367	0.5	0.234	0.266	30399	-28	142	35	16776	10481	6295	127	113	36
SSB (2020) = Blim	26337	16674	9663	1.152	0.539	0.612	18447	-57	350	149	30892	19558	11334	320	290	150
SSB (2020) = Bpa	18778	11791	6987	0.707	0.331	0.376	25826	-39	220	77	22026	13831	8195	200	180	78
SSB (2020) = MSYBtrigger	18778	11791	6987	0.707	0.331	0.376	25826	-39	220	77	22026	13831	8195	200	180	78
F = F2018	6452	3996	2456	0.201	0.094	0.107	38723	-8.7	8.3	-39	7568	4687	2881	1.6	-3.8	-39
A: Max.	9789			0.353			31239	-26
B: Min.	3235			0.106			38204	-10
C: COD	4638			0.155			36693	-13
D: SQ effort	6896			0.238			34283	-19
E: Value	6613			0.227			34583	-18
F: range [1]	7267			0.23			37651	-11
G:

Symbol	Footnotes
*	“Wanted” and “unwanted” catch are used to describe fish that would be landed and discarded in the absence of the EU landing obligation, based on discard rate estimates for 2015–2017.
**	SSB 2020 relative to SSB 2019.
***	Wanted catch in 2019 relative to the ICES estimates of landings in 2017 (3 689 t) for the Division 7.d plaice stock.
#	All plaice in Division 7.d, including plaice originating from the North Sea and the western English Channel, according to a ratio calculated over the years 2003–2017: 14.75% of the plaice landed in Division 7.d is assumed to originate from the North Sea and the western English Channel, and this is added to the predicted values for the Division 7.d plaice stock. The ratio is applied to total catch, wanted catch, and unwanted catch.
##	Total catch in 2019 relative to the Division 7.d proportion of the TAC in 2018 (7 871 t), assuming the same proportion of the TAC is taken from Division 7.e as during 2003–2017.
###	Total catch in 2019 relative to advice value 2018 (12 378 t) for plaice caught in Division 7.d.
^	Differences between the total catch and the sum of wanted and unwanted catches are due to rounding.
^^	Wanted catch in 2019 relative to the ICES estimates of landings in 2017 (4 613 t) for plaice caught in Division 7.d.
^^^	Proposed EU multiannual plan (MAP) for the Western Waters (EU, 2016).
$	Total catch in 2019 relative to advice value 2018 (10 592 t) for the Division 7.d plaice stock.
A.	Maximum scenario: Each fleet stops fishing when its last stock share is exhausted.
B.	Minimum scenario: Each fleet stops fishing when its first stock share is exhausted.
C.	COD: Each fleet stops fishing when its individual cod share is exhausted.
D.	SQ (status quo) effort scenario: The effort of each fleet in 2018 and 2019 is as in 2017.
E.	Value scenario: The effort of each fleet is equal to the weighted average of the efforts required to catch the fleet’s quota share of each of the stocks, where the weights are the relative catch values of each stock in the fleet’s portfolio.
F.	Range scenario: The potential for TAC mismatches in 2019 are minimized within the FMSY range, for the demersal fish stocks for which such a range is available (cod.27.47d20; had.27.46a20; pok.27.3a46; ple.27.420; ple.27.7d; sol.27.4; sol.27.7d).