Catch scenarios

Basis	Total catch	Wanted catch*	Unwanted catch*	Ftotal (ages 3–7)#	Fwanted (ages 3–7)	Funwanted (ages 1–3)	SSB	% SSB change**	% TAC change***	% Advice change^
	2019	2019	2019	2019	2019	2019	2020	2020	2020	2020
	(t)	(t)	(t)	(ratio)	(ratio)	(ratio)	(t)	(%)	(%)	(%)
ICES Basis Advice
MSY approach: FMSY × SSB (2019)/MSY Btrigger	2571	2266	305	0.2	0.185	0.056	16615	9.1	-24	-33
Other scenarios
F= FMSY lower ×SSB(2019)/MSYBtrigger	1998	1762	236	0.154	0.141	0.043	17205	13	-41	-48
Constant TAC	3405	2997	408	0.28	0.25	0.076	15757	3.5	0	-11.9
TAC (2018) +15% ^	3916	3444	472	0.32	0.3	0.089	15232	0.053	15	1.29
TAC (2018) -15% ^	2894	2549	345	0.23	0.21	0.064	16282	7	-15	-25
F = 0	0	0	0	0			19267	27	-100	-100
FMSY	3181	2800	381	0.256	0.23	0.071	15988	5	-6.6	-17.7
Fpa	3181	2800	381	0.256	0.23	0.071	15988	5	-6.6	-17.7
Flim	4279	3761	518	0.359	0.33	0.099	14860	-2.4	26	10.7
SSB (2020) = Blim	5360	4704	656	0.47	0.43	0.13	13751	-9.7	57	39
SSB (2020) = Bpa	16	14	2	0.00114	0.00104	0.00031	19251	26	-100	-100
SSB (2020) = MSYBtrigger	16	14	2	0.00114	0.00104	0.00031	19251	26	-100	-100
F2019 = F2018	3013	2653	360	0.24	0.22	0.066	16160	6.1	-11.5	-22
F = FMSY lower	2484	2189	295	0.195	0.179	0.054	16704	9.7	-27	-36
A: Max.	4055			0.335			15199	-0.0016	19.1	4.9
B: Min.	1482			0.112			17847	17	-56	-62
C: COD	1923			0.147			17392	14	-44	-50
D: SQ effort	2874			0.227			16413	8	-15.6	-26
E: Value	2845			0.225			16442	8	-16.4	-26
F: Range[1]	2271			0.177			16923	11	-33	-41

Symbol	Footnotes
*	“Wanted” and “unwanted” catch are used to describe fish that would be landed and discarded in the absence of the EU landing obligation.
**	SSB 2020 relative to SSB 2019.
***	Total catch in 2019 relative to TAC in 2018 (3405 t)
#	Fwanted and Funwanted do not sum up to the Ftotal as they are calculated using different ages.
^	Total catch in 2019 relative to advice value 2018 (3866 t).
^^	The option with FMSY upper is not included as the stock below MSY Btrigger.
A.	Maximum scenario: Each fleet stops fishing when its last stock share is exhausted.
B.	Minimum scenario: Each fleet stops fishing when its first stock share is exhausted.
C.	COD: Each fleet stops fishing when its individual cod share is exhausted.
D.	SQ (status quo) effort scenario: The effort of each fleet in 2017 and 2018 is as in 2016.
E.	Value scenario: The effort of each fleet is equal to the weighted average of the efforts required to catch the fleet’s quota share of each of the stocks, where the weights are the relative catch values of each stock in the fleet’s portfolio.
F.	Range scenario: where the potential for TAC mismatches in 2018 are minimized within the FMSY range, for the demersal fish stocks for which such a range is available (cod.27.47d20; had.27.46a20; pok.27.3a46; ple.27.420; ple.27.7d; sol.27.4; sol.27.7d).