Catch scenarios

Basis	Total catch	Probability SSB Blim *	Median SSB*	HR**	% TAC change***
	2018	2018	2018	2018	2018
	(t)	(t)	(t)	(t)	(%)
ICES Basis Advice
Harvest control rule in the management strategy^	33000	0.001	125771	0.262	0
Other scenarios
HR (2018)=0	0	0.001	139741	0	-100
HR (2018)=0	10000	0.001	135544	0.074	-70
HR (2018)=0	20000	0.001	131324	0.152	-39
HR (2018)=0	30000	0.001	127048	0.24	-9.1
HR(2018)=HR(2017)	32775	0.001	125868	0.26	-0.68
HR(2018)=HR(2017)	40000	0.001	122770	0.33	21
HR(2018)=HR(2017)	50000	0.001	118460	0.42	52

Symbol	Footnotes
*	The SSB corresponds to mid-May, with 60% of the catch assumed to be taken in the first semester.
**	Harvest rate (HR) is calculated as Catch/(Median SSB).
***	Catch (2018) relative to the 2017 TAC (33 000 t).
^	Because SSB (2018) is above 89 000 t, the management strategy option is based on the upper bound for the TAC (33 000 t).