Advice and Scenarios Database



Cod (Gadus morhua) in Subarea 4, Division 7.d, and Subdivision 20 (North Sea, eastern English Channel, Skagerrak)
StockCode
cod.27.47d20
Assessment Year
2022
Stock Category
1
Purpose
Replaced
Published
Stock Assessment Key
16999
Link to Advice Sheet
https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.advice.19447880.v1






Catch scenarios


Basis
Total catch
Projected landings
Projected discards*
Ftotal (ages 2–4)
Fprojected landings (ages 2–4)
Fprojected discards (ages 2–4)
SSB
% SSB change**
% TAC change***
% advice change^
% Probability of falling below Blim^^
2023 2023 2023 2023 2023 2023 2024 2024 2024 2024 2024
(t) (t) (t) (ratio) (ratio) (ratio) (t) (%) (%) (%) (%)
ICES Basis Advice
MSY approach: FMSY × SSB (2023) /MSY Btrigger 22946 19500 3446 0.2 0.16 0.04 84197 22 44 61 16.9
Other scenarios
F=FMSYlower × SSB (2023) /MSYBtrigger 15752 13439 2313 0.13 0.1 0.03 90115 31 -1 10.3 9.5
F=0 0 0 0 0 0 0 103498 50 -100 -100 1.6
Fpa 49839 41862 7977 0.49 0.39 0.1 62613 -9.3 210 250 68
Flim 56773 47488 9285 0.58 0.46 0.12 57552 -16.6 260 300 80
SSB(2024)=Blim 40682 34292 6390 0.38 0.3 0.08 69841 1.19 156 185 50
SSB (2024)= MSYBtrigger=Bpa 6647 5678 969 0.05 0.04 0.01 97775 42 -58 -53 3.9
TAC (2022) -20% 12729 10866 1863 0.11 0.08 0.02 92686 34 -20 -10.8 7.4
TAC (2022) -15% 13524 11537 1987 0.11 0.09 0.02 92031 33 -15 -5.3 8
TAC (2022) -10% 14320 12215 2105 0.12 0.09 0.03 91286 32 -10 0.31 8.4
TAC (2022) -5% 15115 12893 2222 0.13 0.1 0.03 90638 31 -5 5.9 8.9
TAC(2022) 15911 13573 2338 0.13 0.11 0.03 89985 30 0 11.5 9.6
TAC (2022) +5% 16707 14248 2459 0.14 0.11 0.03 89323 29 5 17 10.7
TAC (2022) +10% 17502 14922 2580 0.15 0.12 0.03 88622 28 10 23 11.3
TAC (2022) +15% 18298 15597 2701 0.15 0.12 0.03 87992 27 15 28 12.2
TAC (2022) +20% 19093 16275 2818 0.16 0.13 0.03 87348 27 20 34 13.1
F=F2022 23981 20377 3604 0.21 0.17 0.04 83358 21 51 68 18.2
F=FMSY lower 21721 18473 3248 0.19 0.15 0.04 85182 23 37 52 15.6
F=FMSY 31261 26495 4766 0.28 0.22 0.06 77687 12.6 96 119 30




Symbol Footnotes
* Including below minimum size (BMS) landings, assuming recent discard rate.
** SSB 2024 relative to SSB 2023.
*** Total catch in 2023 relative to TAC in 2022: North Sea (13 246 t) + Skagerrak (1893 t) + eastern English Channel (772 t) = 15 911 t.
^ Total catch in 2023 relative to advice value for 2022 (14 276 t).
^^ This probability relates to the short-term probability of SSB less Blim and is not comparable to the long-term probability of SSB less Blim tested in simulations when estimating fishing mortality reference points.