Catch scenarios

Basis	Total catch*	Projected landings	Projected discards	Ftotal	Fprojected landings	Fprojected discards	SSB	% SSB change**	% advice change^
	2021	2021	2021	2021	2021	2021	2022	2022	2022
	(t)	(t)	(t)	(ratio)	(ratio)	(ratio)	(t)	(%)	(%)
ICES Basis Advice
MSY approach: FMSY	6239	5501	738	0.168	0.119	0.049	38128	-6.1	-40
Other scenarios
NEAFC Proposed management strategy1 ^^	7086	6247	839	0.193	0.137	0.057	37192	-8.4	-32
NEAFC Proposed management strategy2 ^^^	8378	7385	993	0.233	0.165	0.068	35764	-11.9	-20
F = 0	0	0	0	0	0	0	44215	8.9	-100
Fpa	20561	18096	2465	0.71	0.5	0.21	22450	-45	96
Flim	26535	23331	3204	1.06	0.75	0.31	16065	-60	153
SSB2022 = Blim	40228	35235	4993	3.13	2.2	0.92	2474	-94	280
SSB2022 = Bpa= MSYBtrigger	38819	34025	4794	2.664	1.88	0.78	3712	-91	270
Rollover TAC	10472	9229	1243	0.301	0.213	0.088	33456	-17.7	0
F = F2020	8264	7285	979	0.229	0.162	0.067	35890	-11.6	-21
F = MAP # FMSYlower	4019	3544	475	0.105	0.074	0.031	40589	-0.05	-62
F = MAP # FMSYupper	9546	8414	1132	0.27	0.191	0.079	34475	-15.1	-8.8

Symbol	Footnotes
*	Total catch includes EU, non-EU (Russian Federation, Norway, UK, etc.).
**	SSB 2022 relative to SSB 2021.
#	EU multiannual plan (MAP) for the Western Waters (EU, 2019).
^	Advice value for 2021 relative to the advice value for 2020 (10 472 tonnes).
^^	TACFHCR is derived from a two-step process: FMSY = 0.168 followed by the TAC constraint (a), where the TAC2021 = TACFMSY + 0.2 × (TAC2020 -TACFMSY). To calculate the catch scenario of the proposed management strategy, ICES uses the advised catches for 2020 as the TAC2020; the formula for TAC2021, therefore, corresponds to catches of 6 239 + 0.2 × (10 472 -6239) = 7 086 tonnes.
^^^	TACFHCR with TAC constraint (b), which implies no more than 20% below or 25% above of the TAC of preceding year (TACy-1).