Advice and Scenarios Database



Cod (Gadus morhua) in Subarea 4, Division 7.d, and Subdivision 20 (North Sea, eastern English Channel, Skagerrak)
StockCode (Assessment Component)
cod.27.47d20
Assessment Year
2022
Stock Category
1
Purpose
Advice
Published
Stock Assessment Key
17652
Link to Advice Sheet
https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.advice.21406881.v1






Catch scenarios


Basis
Total catch
Projected landings
Projected discards*
Ftotal (ages 2–4)
Fprojected landings (ages 2–4)
Fprojected discards (ages 2–4)
SSB
% SSB change**
% TAC change***
% advice change^
% Probability of falling below Blim^^
2023 2023 2023 2023 2023 2023 2024 2024 2024 2024 2024
(t) (t) (t) (ratio) (ratio) (ratio) (t) (%) (%) (%) (%)
ICES Basis Advice
MSY approach: FMSY × SSB (2023) /MSY Btrigger 26008 21785 4223 0.21 0.166 0.043 91130 25 63 82 7.5
Other scenarios
F=FMSYlower × SSB (2023) /MSYBtrigger 17863 14989 2874 0.139 0.11 0.029 97892 34 12.3 25 3.4
F=0 0 0 0 0 0 0 112672 54 -100 -100 0.3
Fpa 53641 44359 9282 0.49 0.39 0.1 69181 -5.3 240 280 52
Flim 61064 50279 10785 0.58 0.46 0.119 63339 -13.3 280 330 67
SSB(2024)=Blim 52784 43673 9111 0.48 0.38 0.098 69841 -4.4 230 270 50
SSB (2024)= MSYBtrigger=Bpa 17997 15099 2898 0.14 0.111 0.029 97777 34 13.1 26 3.6
TAC (2022) -20% 12729 10699 2030 0.097 0.077 0.02 102182 40 -20 -10.8 2.2
TAC (2022) -15% 13524 11368 2156 0.104 0.082 0.022 101533 39 -15 -5.3 2.5
TAC (2022) -10% 14320 12032 2288 0.11 0.087 0.023 100877 38 -10 0.31 2.7
TAC (2022) -5% 15116 12698 2418 0.116 0.093 0.023 100207 37 -5 5.9 2.8
TAC(2022) 15911 13370 2541 0.123 0.098 0.025 99554 36 0 11.5 2.8
TAC (2022) +5% 16707 14041 2666 0.129 0.103 0.026 98892 35 5 17 3.3
TAC (2022) +10% 17502 14696 2806 0.136 0.108 0.028 98200 34 10 23 3.4
TAC (2022) +15% 18297 15346 2951 0.143 0.113 0.03 97502 33 15 28 3.7
TAC (2022) +20% 19093 16011 3082 0.149 0.119 0.03 96820 33 20 34 4.1
F=F2022 22523 18897 3626 0.179 0.142 0.037 93985 29 42 58 5.6
F=FMSY lower 23374 19604 3770 0.186 0.148 0.038 93301 28 47 64 5.9
F=FMSY 33693 28121 5572 0.28 0.22 0.057 84708 16 112 136 14.9




Symbol Footnotes
* Including below minimum size (BMS) landings, assuming recent discard rate.
** SSB 2024 relative to SSB 2023.
*** Total catch in 2023 relative to TAC in 2022: North Sea (13 246 t) + Skagerrak (1893 t) + eastern English Channel (772 t) = 15 911 t.
^ Total catch in 2023 relative to advice value for 2022 (14 276 t).
^^ This probability relates to the short-term probability of SSB less Blim and is not comparable to the long-term probability of SSB less Blim tested in simulations when estimating fishing mortality reference points.