Advice and Scenarios Database



Northern shrimp (Pandalus borealis) in divisions 3.a and 4.a East (Skagerrak and Kattegat and northern North Sea in the Norwegian Deep)
StockCode (Assessment Component)
pra.27.3a4a
Assessment Year
2022
Stock Category
1
Purpose
Advice
Published
Stock Assessment Key
16953
Link to Advice Sheet
https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.advice.19453658.v1






Catch scenarios


Basis
Total catch
Ftotal (2022)/FMSY
Stock size (2023)/Btrigger
% probability^ of SSB (2023) less than Blim
% probability^ of SSB (2023) greater than Btrigger
% SSB change*
% TAC change**
% advice change***
2022 2022 2023 2023 2023 2023 2022 2022
(t) (ratio) (ratio) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%)
ICES Basis Advice
MSY approach: F = FMSY × (SSB2022/MSY Btrigger) 7712 0.6 0.79 14.1 14.5 32 7.6 7.6
Other scenarios
F=0 0 0 1.04 0.3 58.6 73.3 -100 -100
Fpa 13475 1.13 0.61 53.2 3 1.67 88 88
F2021 11454 0.93 0.67 38.8 4.8 11.7 60 60
SSB2023=Blim 13177 1.1 0.63 49.3 3.2 5 84 84
SSB2023=Bpa=Btrigger 1120 0.08 1 0.7 50.4 66.7 -84.37 -84




Symbol Footnotes
* SSB2023/MSY Btrigger relative to predicted SSB2022/MSY Btrigger.
** Advised catch in 2022 relative to TACs in 2021 (7166 tonnes).
*** Advised catch in 2022 relative to advised catch in 2021 (7166 tonnes).
^ Note this probability relates to the short-term probability of SSB less than Blim and is not comparable to the long-term probability of SSB less than Blim tested in simulations when estimating fishing mortality reference points.