Advice and Scenarios Database



Herring (Clupea harengus) in subdivisions 25-29 and 32, excluding the Gulf of Riga (central Baltic Sea)
StockCode
her.27.25-2932
Assessment Year
2023
Stock Category
1
Purpose
Advice
Published
Stock Assessment Key
17816
Link to Advice Sheet
https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.advice.21820506.v1






Catch scenarios


Basis
Total catch
Fishing mortality F2025/FMSY
SSB2026/MSY Btrigger
% probability of SSB(2026) < Blim*
Probability of SSB (2026) < MSY Btrigger(%)*
% SSB change**
% advice change***
2025 2025 2026 2026 2026 2026 2025
(t) (ratio) (ratio) (%) (%) (%) (%)
ICES Basis Advice
EU MAP^: F = FMSY × SSB2025/MSY Btrigger 125344 0.73 0.85 4.9 65 16 139
EU MAP^: F = MAP range Flower × SSB2025/MSY Btrigger 95340 0.54 0.87 3.4 62 19 129
Other scenarios
F = 0 0 0 0.95 0.9 55 30 -100
FMSY 167388 1 0.81 7.4 68 11 219
Flower 128305 0.75 0.85 5.1 65 16 144
Fupper 198182 1.21 0.79 9.8 70 8.2 277
EU MAP^: F=MAP range Fupper × SSB2025/MSY Btrigger 148932 0.88 0.83 6.3 66 14 138
SSB (2026)=Blim^^ 542828 4.48 0.51 48 91 -30 933
SSB (2026)=Bpa^^^
SSB (2026)=MSYBtrigger^^^
SSB (2026)=SSB (2025) 276349 1.79 0.73 17 75 0 426
F=F2024 84879 0.48 0.88 2.99 62 21 62
p(SSB(2026)<;Blim)=5% 127318 0.74 0.85 5 65 16 142




Symbol Footnotes
* The probability of SSB being below SSB reference points in 2026. This probability relates to the short-term probability of SSB <; Blim and MSY Btrigger and is not comparable to the long-term probability of SSB <; Blim and MSY Btrigger tested in simulations when estimating fishing mortality reference points.
** SSB 2026 relative to SSB 2025.
*** Advice values for 2025 relative to the corresponding values for 2024 (EU MAP advice of 52 549[FMSY], 41 706 [Flower] tonnes, and 62 558 [Fupper] respectively, all other values relative to 52 549).
^ MAP multiannual plan (EU, 2016, 2019, 2020).
^^ For the Blim option only a scenario for which Blim could be achieved by 1.03% is presented. This is because at the high F level required to achieve Blim in 2026 the model did not converge.
^^^ The Bpa and MSYBtrigger options were left blank because Bpa and MSYBtrigger cannot be achieved in 2026, even with zero catch in 2025.