Catch scenarios

Basis	Total catch*	Projected landings	Projected discards**	Ftotal# (ages 2–6)	Fprojected landings (ages 2–6)	Fprojected discards (ages 1–3)	SSB	% SSB change^	% TAC change^^	% advice change^^
	2024	2024	2024	2024	2024	2024	2025	2025	2024	2024
	(t)	(t)	(t)	(ratio)	(ratio)	(ratio)	(t)	(%)	(%)	(%)
ICES Basis Advice
MSY approach: FMSY × SSB (2024) /MSY Btrigger	3588	3164	424	0.122	0.089	0.022	33979	35	-61	-61
Other scenarios
FMSY	5861	5158	703	0.207	0.151	0.038	31484	25	-36	-36
FMSY lower	3630	3201	429	0.123	0.09	0.022	33933	35	-60	-60
FMSY lower × SSB (2024) /MSY Btrigger	2186	1930	256	0.072	0.053	0.0131	35518	41	-76	-76
F = 0	0	0	0	0	0	0	37914	51	-100	-100
Fpa	8365	7342	1022	0.311	0.23	0.057	28734	14.3	-8.6	-8.6
Flim	10722	9387	1335	0.42	0.31	0.076	26143	4	17.2	17.2
SSB (2025) = Bpa = MSY Btrigger##
SSB (2025) = Blim	6458	5680	778	0.23	0.169	0.042	30828	23	-29	-29
F = F2023	5143	4529	614	0.179	0.131	0.033	32273	28	-44	-44
Rollover advice	9152	8027	1125	0.35	0.25	0.063	27868	10.9	0	0

Symbol	Footnotes
*	Differences between the total catch and the sum of projected landings and discards result from rounding.
**	Including BMS landings. Assuming average estimated discard rate by age 2020-2022.
#	Fprojected landings and Fprojected discards do not add up to Ftotal as they are calculated using different ages.
##	Bpa and MSY Btrigger cannot be achieved in 2025, even with zero catches.
^	SSB 2025 relative to SSB 2024.
^^	Total catch in 2024 relative to the advice value 2023 and TAC (both 9152 tonnes).