Advice and Scenarios Database



Northern shrimp (Pandalus borealis) in divisions 3.a and 4.a East (Skagerrak and Kattegat and northern North Sea in the Norwegian Deep)
StockCode
pra.27.3a4a
Assessment Year
2023
Stock Category
1
Purpose
Advice
Published
Stock Assessment Key
18159
Link to Advice Sheet
https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.advice.21820455.v1






Catch scenarios


Basis
Total catch (2023*)
Ftotal (2023*)/Ftarget
Stock size (2024**)/Btrigger
% probability^ of SSB (2024**) below Blim
% probability^ of SSB (2024**) below Blim
% SSB change***
% TAC change †
% advice change‡
2023 2023 2024 2024 2024 2023 2023 2023
(t) (ratio) (ratio) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%)
ICES Basis Advice
Long term management plan: F = FMSY × (SSB2023/MSY Btrigger) 5125 0.44 0.83 2.4 17 82.3 -47.4 -47.4
Other scenarios
F=0 0 0 0.97 0 42.9 113.9 -100 -100
Fpa 11788 1.13 0.63 31.1 3.2 38.9 21 21
F2022 11788 1.13 0.63 31.1 3.2 38.9 21 21
SSB2024=Blim 14350 1.45 0.56 49.1 1.7 23.2 47.4 47.4
SSB2024=Bpa=Btrigger^^
Scenario 2^^^ 6076 0.51 0.83 2.4 17 75.1 -37.6 -37.6




Symbol Footnotes
* Refers to TAC Year 2023 (ie. 1 July 2023 to 30 June 2024)
** Refers to TAC Year 2024 (ie. 1 July 2024 to 30 June 2025
*** SSB2024/MSYBtrigger relative to predicted SSB2023/MSYBtrigger.
† Advised catch in 2023 relative to TACs in 2022 (9738tonnes)
‡ Advised catch in 2023 relative to advised catch in 2022 (9738tonnes)
^ Note this probability relates to the short-term probability of SSB<; Blim and is not comparable to the long-term probability of SSB<;Blim tested in simulations when estimating fishing mortality reference points.
^^ Bpa and MSY Btrigger cannot be achieved in 2024, even with zero catches
^^^ Scenario 2 assumes that the full TAC in 2022 (1 July 2022 – 30 June 2023) will not be taken