Catch scenarios

Basis	Total catch (2024)	F (2024)	SSB (2025)	% SSB change*	% TAC change**	% Advice change***	Probability SSB less than Blim in 2025 (%)^
	2024	2024	2025	2025	2025	2025	2025
	(t)	(ratio)	(t)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)
ICES Basis Advice
EU MAP^^: FMSYx SSB(2024)/Btrigger	63049	0.208	430423	5	-21	-39	26
EU MAP^^: MAP range Flowerx SSB(2024)/Btrigger	48824	0.158	444084	8.3	-39	-39	21
Other scenarios
F = 0	0	0	491083	20	-100	-100	9
FMSY	80198	0.271	413976	1	0.2	-22	32
Flower	62491	0.206	430958	5.1	-22	-39	25
Fpa = FMSY upper	80463	0.272	413722	0.9	0.5	-22	32
Flim	135034	0.496	361570	-12	69	32	58
Fupperx SSB (2024)/Btrigger	63328	0.209	430155	4.9	-21	-39	26
SSB (2025)=Blim	119217	0.427	376655	-8.1	49	16	50
SSB (2025)= Bpa##
SSB (2025)= MSYBtrigger##
SSB (2025)= SSB (2024)	84420	0.287	409930	0	5.4	-18	34
F=F2023	74845	0.251	419108	2.2	-6.5	-27	29

Symbol	Footnotes
*	SSB 2025 relative to SSB 2024.
**	Catch in 2024 relative to the TAC in 2023 (80074 tonnes).
***	Advice values for 2024 relative to the corresponding 2023 values (EU MAP advice of 102719 [FMSY], 103 059 [Fupper] and 80074 [Flower] tonnes, respectively; other values are relative to 102719 tonnes).
#	Based on stochastic forecasts, using the F with three decimals to get close to the biomass target.
##	The Bpa, and MSYBtrigger options were left blank because Bpa, and MSYBtrigger cannot be achieved in 2025, even with zero catch in 2024.
^	The probability of SSB being below Blim in 2025. This probability relates to the short-term probability of SSB <; Blim and is not comparable to the long-term probability of SSB <; Blim tested in simulations when estimating fishing mortality reference points.
^^	MAP multiannual plan (EU, 2016, 2019, 2020).