Advice and Scenarios Database



Herring (Clupea harengus) in subareas 1, 2, 5 and divisions 4.a and 14.a, Norwegian spring-spawning herring (the Northeast Atlantic and Arctic Ocean)
StockCode
her.27.1-24a514a
Assessment Year
2023
Stock Category
1
Purpose
Advice
Published
Stock Assessment Key
18378
Link to Advice Sheet
https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.advice.21856509.v1






Catch scenarios


Basis
Total catch
F
SSB
% SSB change*
% catch change**
% advice change***
% probability of falling below Blim in 2025
2024 2024 2025 2025 2025 2025 2025
(t) (ratio) (t) (%) (%) (%) (%)
ICES Basis Advice
Agreed management strategy^ 390010 0.124 2913275 -5 -44 -24 15.7
Other scenarios
MSY approach: FMSY × SSB2024/MSYBtrigger 469953 0.151 2844892 -7 -32 -8 20.8
F=0 0 0 3248398 6 -100 -100 1.9
Fpa 487686 0.157 2829739 -8 -30 -5 21.2
Flim 850085 0.291 2521394 -18 23 66 51.4
SSB2025=Blim^^ 875324 0.301 2500022 -18 26 71 52.9
SSB2025=Bpa=MSYBtrigger^^ 74667 0.023 3184058 4 -89 -85 2.9
F=F2023 570511 0.186 2759039 -10 -18 12 27.7




Symbol Footnotes
* SSB2025 relative to SSB2024 (3059464tonnes)
** Catch in 2024 relative to ICES estimated catch in 2023 (692942tonnes).
*** Advice value 2024 relative to advice value 2023 (511171tonnes).
^ According to the harvest control rule in the management strategy F(2024)=0.124, since the SSB is forecasted to be below SSBmgt on 1 January 2024 (the -20% catch constraint in the management strategy does not apply when SSB is below SSBmgt).
^^ SSB2025 values are the closest available approximation to Blim and Btrigger.