Catch scenarios

Basis	Total catch*	Projected landings	Projected discards**	Ftotal# (ages 2–6)	Fprojected landings (ages 2–6)	Fprojected discards (ages 1–3)	SSB	% SSB change^	% TAC change^^	% advice change^^
	2024	2024	2024	2024	2024	2024	2025	2025	2024	2024
	(t)	(t)	(t)	(ratio)	(ratio)	(ratio)	(t)	(%)	(%)	(%)
ICES Basis Advice
MSY approach: FMSY × SSB (2024) /MSY Btrigger	3675	3248	427	0.121	0.088	0.022	33295	34	-60	-60
Other scenarios
FMSY	6046	5333	713	0.21	0.151	0.038	30732	23	-34	-34
FMSY lower	3746	3311	435	0.123	0.09	0.022	33218	33	-59	-59
FMSY lower × SSB (2024) /MSY Btrigger	2238	1980	258	0.072	0.052	0.013	34850	40	-76	-76
F = 0	0	0	0	0			37273	49	-100	-100
Fpa	8628	7591	1037	0.31	0.23	0.057	27946	12.1	-5.7	-5.7
Flim	11057	9703	1354	0.42	0.31	0.076	25330	1.57	21	21
SSB (2025) = Bpa = MSY Btrigger##
SSB (2025) = Blim	5957	5255	702	0.2	0.149	0.037	30828	24	-35	-35
F = F2023	5144	4541	603	0.173	0.127	0.032	31707	27	-44	-44
Rollover advice	9152	8048	1104	0.33	0.24	0.061	27381	9.8	0	0

Symbol	Footnotes
*	Differences between the total catch and the sum of projected landings and discards result from rounding.
**	Including BMS landings. Assuming average estimated discard rate by age 2020-2022.
#	Fprojected landings and Fprojected discards do not add up to Ftotal as they are calculated using different ages.
##	Bpa and MSY Btrigger cannot be achieved in 2025, even with zero catches.
^	SSB 2025 relative to SSB 2024.
^^	Total catch in 2024 relative to the advice value 2023 and TAC (both 9152 tonnes).