Catch scenarios

Basis	Total catch	Projected landings	Projected discards	Fages 3-7 total	SSB	SSB change #	TAC change ##	Advice change ^^^	Probability SSB less than Blim*
	2025	2025	2025	2025	2026	2026	2025	2025	2026
	(t)	(t)	(t)	(ratio)	(t)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(ratio)
ICES Basis Advice
EU MAP ^: F = FMSY × SSB2025/MSYBtrigger	2510	2476	34	0.29	9527	-1.66	0.8	0.84	0.01
EU MAP ^: F = FMSY lower × SSB2025/MSYBtrigger ^^	1716	1694	22	0.19	10426	7.6	-31	18	0
Other scenarios
MSY approach = FMSY	2646	2611	35	0.31	9441	-2.6	6.3	6.3	0.02
FMSY lower	1800	1776	24	0.2	10312	6.4	-28	-28	0
FMSY upper	3137	3094	43	0.38	8918	-8	26	26	0.05
F = 0	0	0	0	0	12069	25	-100	-100	0
FPA	3482	3433	49	0.43	8567	-11.6	40	40	0.09
SSB2026 = Blim	4547	4486	61	0.61	7470	-23	83	83	0.5
SSB2026 = Bpa = MSYBtrigger	1624	1605	19	0.18	10460	8	-35	-35	0
SSB2026 = SSB2025	2430	2399	31	0.28	9688	0	-2.4	-2.4	0
F = F2024	2497	2466	31	0.29	9556	-1.36	0.32	0.32	0
Landings 2024 = landings from TAC of 2489 tonnes	2523	2489	34	0.29	9555	-1.37	1.37	1.37	0.01
Total catch equal to TAC2024	2489	2456	33	0.29	9589	-1.02	0	0	0.01
Probability of (SSB2026<;Blim)=5%	3137	3094	43	0.38	8918	-8	26	26	0.05

Symbol	Footnotes
*	The probability of SSB being below Blim in 2026. This probability relates to the short-term probability of SSB <; Blim and is not comparable to the long-term probability of SSB <; Blim tested in simulations when estimating fishing mortality reference points.
#	SSB in 2026 relative to SSB in 2025 (9688 tonnes).
##	Total catch in 2025 relative to TAC in 2024 (2489 tonnes)
^	The EU multiannual plan (MAP; EU, 2019).
^^	Advice value for 2025 relative to the value for 2024 for the MAP FMSY lower (1454 tonnes).
^^^	Advice value for 2025 relative to advice value for 2024 (2489 tonnes).