Advice and Scenarios Database



Northern shrimp (Pandalus borealis) in divisions 3.a and 4.a East (Skagerrak and Kattegat and northern North Sea in the Norwegian Deep)
StockCode
pra.27.3a4a
Assessment Year
2024
Stock Category
1
Purpose
Advice
Published
Stock Assessment Key
18990
Link to Advice Sheet
https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.advice.25019483.v1






Catch scenarios


Basis
Total catch (2024)
Ftotal (2024)/FMSY
Stock size (2025)/MSY Btrigger
% probability^ of SSB (2025) less than Blim
% probability^ of SSB (2025) greater than MSY Btrigger
% SSB change*
% TAC change †
% advice change‡
2024 2024 2025 2025 2025 2025 2024 2024
(t) (ratio) (ratio) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%)
ICES Basis Advice
Long-term management plan: F2024 = Fmgt × (SSB2024/Bmgt) 4557 0.57 0.6 32.6 0.18 2.9 -25 -11.1
Other scenarios
F2024=0 0 0 0.78 0.65 2.5 33.444 -100 -100
F2024 = Fpa 8203 1.14 0.47 78.6 0 -19.9 35 60.1
F2024 = F2023 5772 0.75 0.56 49.9 0.05 -4.9 -5 12.6
SSB2025=Blim 5772 0.75 0.56 49.9 0.05 -4.9 -5 12.6
SSB2025=Bpa=MSY Btrigger^^




Symbol Footnotes
* SSB2025/MSYBtrigger relative to predicted SSB2024/MSYBtrigger.
† Advised catch in 2024 relative to TAC in 2023 (6 076tonnes).
‡ Advised catch in 2024 relative to advised catch in 2023 (5 125tonnes).
^ Note that this probability relates to the short-term probability of SSB<; Blim and is not comparable to the long-term probability of SSB<;Blim tested in simulations when estimating fishing mortality reference points.
^^ Bpa and MSY Btrigger cannot be achieved in 2025, even with zero catches.