Catch scenarios

Basis	Total catch	Projected landings	Projected discards^	Ftotal (ages 3–7)	Fprojected landings (ages 3–7)	Fprojected discards (ages 3-7)	SSB	SSB change*	TAC change**	advice change**	Probability of SSB (2026) below Blim
	2025	2025	2025	2025	2025	2025	2026	2026	2025	2025	2026
	(t)	(t)	(t)	(ratio)	(ratio)	(ratio)	(t)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)
ICES Basis Advice
MSY approach: FMSY × SSB (2025)/MSY Btrigger	1209	990	220	0.159	0.124	0.035	11630	7.6	-19.6	-19.6	40
Other scenarios
FMSYlower× SSB(2025)/ MSYBtrigger	841	690	154	0.108	0.085	0.023	12052	11.6	-44	-44	30
F = 0	0	0	0	0	0	0	13018	20	-100	-100	14.7
Fpa	2264	1850	410	0.318	0.25	0.068	10418	-3.6	51	51	66
Flim	2466	2000	450	0.352	0.28	0.076	10183	-5.7	64	64	71
SSB (2026) = Blim	1581	1290	290	0.21	0.167	0.045	11181	3.5	5.1	5.1	50
SSB (2026) = Bpa = MSYBtrigger#
F = F2024	1599	1310	290	0.21	0.169	0.046	11161	3.3	6.3	6.3	50
FMSY lower	1192	980	220	0.156	0.123	0.033	11649	7.8	-21	-21	40
FMSY	1697	1390	310	0.23	0.18	0.05	11051	2.3	12.8	12.8	52

Symbol	Footnotes
*	SSB 2026 relative to SSB 2025 (10804 tonnes).
**	Total catch in 2025 relative to the advice value 2024 and TAC (both 1504tonnes).
#	Bpa and MSYBtrigger cannot be achieved in 2026, even with zero catches.
^	Including BMS landings, assuming recent discard rate.