Advice and Scenarios Database



Horse mackerel (Trachurus trachurus) in Division 9.a (Atlantic Iberian waters)
StockCode
hom.27.9a
Assessment Year
2024
Stock Category
1
Purpose
Advice
Published
Stock Assessment Key
19047






Catch scenarios


Basis
Catches
F
SSB
SSB change*
Catch change**
Advice change***
Probability of SSB falling below Blim in 2026^
2025 2025 2026 2026 2025 2025 2026
(t) (ratio) (t) (%) (%) (%) (%)
ICES Basis Advice
MSY approach: FMSY 59266 0.115 522221 -2 122 -66 0.0043
Other scenarios
F=0 0 0 577806 8 -100 -100 0.0009
F=F2023 26618 0.05 552803 4 7 -85 0.0018
F=F2023×1.2 31787 0.06 547955 3 28 -82 0.0021
F=F2023×1.6 41974 0.08 538407 1 69 -76 0.0027
F=F2023×2.0 51963 0.1 529053 -1 110 -70 0.0036
Fpa 74168 0.146 508295 -5 199 -57 0.0065
Flim 79802 0.158 503037 -6 222 -54 0.0076
SSB (2026)=Blim 412704 1.322 201000 -62 1566 137 50
SSB (2026)=Bpa = MSYBtrigger 324189 0.879 279000 -48 1209 86 8




Symbol Footnotes
* SSB 2026 relative to SSB 2025 (533 917 tonnes).
** Advised catches in 2025 relative to ICES estimates of catches in 2023 (24 997 tonnes).
*** Advised catches for 2025 relative to the advised catches for 2024 (173 873tonnes).
^ The probability of SSB being below Blim in 2026. This probability relates to the short-term probability of SSB being below Blim and is not comparable to the long-term probability of SSB being below Blim tested in simulations when estimating fishing mortality reference points.