Catch scenarios

Basis	Total catch (2025)	F (2025)	SSB (2026)	% SSB change*	% TAC change**	% advice change***	Probability SSB <; Blim in 2026 (%)^
	2025	2025	2026	2026	2025	2025	2026
	(t)	(ratio)	(t)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)
ICES Basis Advice
EU MAP^^: FMSY × SSB(2025)/MSY Btrigger	74515	0.19	532003	-0.3	36	18	4.8
EU MAP^^: MAP range Flower × SSB(2025)/MSYBtrigger	66446	0.168	539660	1.2	21	36	4.1
Other scenarios
F = 0	0	0	602872	13	-100	-100	1
FMSY	84586	0.218	522454	-2.1	54	34	6.1
Flower	75605	0.193	530970	-0.5	38	20	4.9
Fpa = FMSY upper	84586	0.218	522454	-2.1	54	34	6.1
Fupper x SSB (2025)/MSYBtrigger	74515	0.19	532003	-0.3	36	18	4.8
SSB (2026)=Blim	225320	0.69	389921	-27	310	257	50
SSB (2026)= Bpa	90593	0.235	516760	-3.1	65	44	6.9
SSB (2026)= MSYBtrigger##
SSB (2026)= SSB (2025)	73058	0.186	533385	0	33	16	4.7
F=F2024	56654	0.142	548957	2.9	3	-10	3.4
P(SSB (2026) <; Blim) = 5 %	75605	0.193	530970	-0.5	38	20	5

Symbol	Footnotes
*	SSB 2026 relative to SSB 2025.
**	Catch in 2025 relative to the TAC in 2024 (55 000 tonnes).
***	Advice values for 2025 relative to the corresponding 2024 values (EU MAP advice of 63 049 [FMSY] and 48 824 [Flower] tonnes, respectively; other values are relative to 63 049 tonnes).
#	Based on stochastic forecasts, using the F with three decimals to get close to the biomass target.
##	The MSYBtrigger option was left blank because MSYBtrigger cannot be achieved in 2026, even with zero catch in 2025.
^	The probability of SSB being below Blim in 2026. This probability relates to the short-term probability of SSB <; Blim and is not comparable to the long-term probability of SSB <; Blim tested in simulations when estimating fishing mortality reference points.
^^	MAP multiannual plan (EU, 2016, 2019, 2020).
~	Advice values for 2025 relative to the 2024 value corresponding to FMSY upper.