Advice and Scenarios Database



Herring (Clupea harengus) in subareas 1, 2, 5 and divisions 4.a and 14.a, Norwegian spring-spawning herring (the Northeast Atlantic and Arctic Ocean)
StockCode
her.27.1-24a514a
Assessment Year
2024
Stock Category
1
Purpose
Advice
Published
Stock Assessment Key
19140






Catch scenarios


Basis
Total catch
F
SSB
SSB change*
Catch change**
Advice change***
Probability of falling below Blim in 2026
2025 2025 2026 2026 2026 2026 2026
(t) (ratio) (t) (%) (%) (%) (%)
ICES Basis Advice
Agreed management strategy^ 401794 0.107 3289632 12 -10 3 2
Other scenarios
MSY approach: FMSY × SSB2025/MSYBtrigger 533844 0.145 3146669 7 19 37 4
F=0 0 0 3551162 21 -100 -100 0
Fpa 570275 0.157 3126069 7 28 46 5
Flim 984889 0.291 2828110 -4 120 153 21
SSB2026=Blim^^ 1410171 0.434 2500000 -15 216 262 50
SSB2026=Bpa=MSYBtrigger^^ 493602 0.133 3184000 9 10 27 3
F=F2024 497087 0.134 3187530 9 11 27 3




Symbol Footnotes
* SSB2026 relative to SSB2025 (2939000tonnes)
** Catch in 2025 relative to ICES estimated catch in 2024 (446 928tonnes).
*** Advice value 2025 relative to advice value 2024 (390010tonnes).
^ According to the harvest control rule in the management strategy F(2025)=0.107, since the SSB is forecasted to be between SSBmgt and SSBmgt lower on 1 January 2025.
^^ SSB2026 values are the closest available approximation to Blim and MSY Btrigger.