Advice and Scenarios Database



Herring (Clupea harengus) in Subarea 4 and divisions 3.a and 7.d, autumn spawners (North Sea, Skagerrak and Kattegat, eastern English Channel)
StockCode (Assessment Component)
her.27.3a47d
Assessment Year
2025
Stock Category
1
Purpose
Advice
Published
Stock Assessment Key
19373
Link to Advice Sheet
https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.advice.27202626.v1






Catch scenarios


Basis
A-fleet Fages (wr) 2–6
B-fleet Fages (wr) 0–1
C-fleet Fages (wr) 1–3
D-fleet Fages (wr) 0–1
total Fages (wr) 2–6
Total Fages (wr) 0–1
A-fleet catches
B-fleet catches++
C-fleet catches#
D-fleet catches#
total catch
SSB 2026
SSB 2027**
%SSB change***
A-fleet %TAC change****
% advice change^
2026 2026 2026 2026 2026 2026 2026 2026 2026 2026 2026 2026 2027 2027 2026 2026
(ratio) (ratio) (ratio) (ratio) (ratio) (ratio) (t) (t) (t) (t) (t) (t) (t) (%) (%) (%)
ICES Basis Advice
Maximum sustainable yield (MSY) approach (FMSY × SSB2026 /MSYBtrigger) 0.224 0.032 0 0 0.224 0.036 282724 5048 0 0 287772 1073298 949568 -13.8 -27.2 -30.2
Other scenarios
F=0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1262395 1359507 1.3 -100 -100
F=F2025 0.286 0.041 0 0 0.286 0.046 349528 6398 0 0 355926 1026742 863779 -17.6 -10 -13.7
Fpa 0.23 0.033 0 0 0.23 0.037 288925 5171 0 0 294096 1069009 941427 -14.2 -25.6 -28.7
SSB2026=BPA 0.256 0.036 0 0 0.256 0.041 316982 5732 0 0 322714 1049521 905046 -15.7 -18.4 -21.7
SSB2026=Blim 0.589 0.084 0 0 0.59 0.094 620759 12734 0 0 633493 828874 558752 -33.5 59.8 53.6
SSB2026=MSYBtrigger 0.19 0.027 0 0 0.19 0.03 243904 4295 0 0 248199 1100000 1001364 -11.7 -37.2 -39.8
MSY approach with Fages0–1=0.05 target ## 0.224 0.046 0 0 0.224 0.05 282688 7197 0 0 289885 1073300 949355 -13.8 -27.2 -29.7
MSY approach with c-fleet catches and c- and d- fleet transfer +,++,+++, #### 0.224 0.073 0.001 0.001 0.224 0.079 282235 11178 461 187 294061 1073341 948712 -13.8 -27.4 -28.7
MSY approach with C- and D-fleet catches and no C- and D-fleet TAC transfer #### 0.217 0.032 0.02 0.037 0.225 0.089 273227 4869 11301 5713 295110 1074227 943869 -13.8 -29.7 -28.4




Symbol Footnotes
* For autumn-spawning stocks, the SSB is influenced by fisheries and natural mortality between 01 January and spawning.
** Assuming same fishing mortality in 2027 as in 2026.
*** SSB (2026) relative to SSB (2025).
**** A-fleet catches (2026) relative to TAC 2025 for the A-fleet (388 542tonnes).
# The catch for C- and D-fleets in Division 3.a are set to zero because of the zero catch advice given for 2026 for the western Baltic spring-spawning (WBSS) herring stock, except for the last two scenarios.
## B-fleet fishing pressure set independently from the A-fleet fishing pressure (ICES, 2025a).
### Fishing pressure inclusive of catches induced by D- fleet transfer.
#### Estimated 2026 C-fleet TAC based on historical TAC setting: TAC C=(5.7%* TAC A)+(TAC SD22-24*41%*2). In 2026, TAC SD22–24=788 t, in line with the 2025 TAC. D -fleet TAC of 6659 t, in line with the 2025 TAC.
^ Advice value 2026 relative to advice value 2025, using catches for all fleets (412 383tonnes).
+ Includes a transfer of 95.8% of the C-fleet TAC in 2026 (22 793t).
+ + Includes a transfer of 96.7% of the D-fleet TAC in 2026 (6 659 t).
+ + + Fishing pressure inclusive of catches induced by C- fleet transfer.