Advice and Scenarios Database



Herring (Clupea harengus) in subdivisions 30 and 31 (Gulf of Bothnia)
StockCode (Assessment Component)
her.27.3031
Assessment Year
2025
Stock Category
1
Purpose
Advice
Published
Stock Assessment Key
19428
Link to Advice Sheet
https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.advice.27202623.v1






Catch scenarios


Basis
Total Catch
F
SSB
SSB change
TAC change
advice change
Probability SSB <; Blim
Probability SSB <; Btrigger
2026 2026 2027 2026 2026 2026 2027 2027
(t) (ratio) (t) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%)
ICES Basis Advice
EU MAP^^: FMSY × SSB(2026)/MSY Btrigger 62684 0.173 495834 1.8 -5.7 -16 10 86
EU MAP^^: MAP range Flower × SSB(2026)/MSYBtrigger 55869 0.153 502406 3.2 -16 -16 9 84
Other scenarios
F = 0 0 0 556410 14 -100 -100 3 70
FMSY 77632 0.218 481435 -1.1 16 4.2 13 89
Flower 69393 0.193 489369 0.5 4.4 -6.9 12 87
Fpa = FMSY upper~ 77632 0.218 481435 -1.1 17 4.2 13 89
Fupperx SSB (2026)/MSYBtrigger~ 62684 0.173 495834 1.8 -5.7 -16 10 86
SSB (2027)=Blim# 173053 0.55 390016 -20 160 132 50 99
SSB (2027)= Bpa# 40917 0.11 516837 6.1 -38 -45 7 81
SSB (2027)= MSYBtrigger##
SSB (2027)= SSB (2026)# 71716 0.2 487131 0 7.9 -3.8 12 88
F=F2025 64371 0.178 494209 1.5 -3.1 -14 11 86
P(SSB (2027) <; Blim) <; 5%^^^ 25560 0.068 531675 9.2 -62 -66 5 77




Symbol Footnotes
* SSB 2027 relative to SSB 2026.
** Catch in 2026 relative to the TAC in 2025 (66 446 tonnes).
*** Advice values for 2026 relative to the corresponding 2025 values (EU MAP advice of 74 515 [FMSY] and 66 446 [Flower] tonnes, respectively; other values are relative to 74 515 tonnes).
# Based on stochastic forecasts, using the F with three decimals to get close to the biomass target.
## The MSYBtrigger option was left blank because MSYBtrigger cannot be achieved in 2027, even with zero catch in 2026.
^ The probability of SSB being below Blim or MSY Btrigger in 2027. This probability relates to the short-term probability of SSB <; Blim or MSYBtrigger and is not comparable to the long-term probability of SSB <; Blim or MSY Btrigger tested in simulations when estimating fishing mortality reference points.
^^ MAP multiannual plan (EU, 2016, 2019, 2020).
^^^ P(SSB [2027] <; Blim) <; 5 % is 4.98 %, but rounded to one decimal in the table.
~ Advice values for 2026 relative to the 2025 value corresponding to FMSY upper.