Advice and Scenarios Database



Saithe (Pollachius virens) in subareas 4, 6 and Division 3.a (North Sea, Rockall and West of Scotland, Skagerrak and Kattegat)
StockCode (Assessment Component)
pok.27.3a46
Assessment Year
2025
Stock Category
1
Purpose
Advice
Published
Stock Assessment Key
19578
Link to Advice Sheet
https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.advice.27202797.v1






Catch scenarios


Basis
Total catch
Projected landings
Projected discards*
Projected landings Division 3.a and Subarea 4 ##
Projected landings Subarea 6 ##
Ftotal (ages 4–7)
Fprojected landings (ages 4–7)
Fprojected discards (ages 4–7)
Spawning-stock biomass (SSB)
% SSB change**
% total allowable catch (TAC) change#
% advice change#
Probability of SSB < Blim***
2026 2026 2026 2026 2026 2026 2026 2026 2027 2027 2026 2026 2027
(t) (t) (t) (t) (t) (ratio) (ratio) (ratio) (t) (%) (%) (%) (%)
ICES Basis Advice
Maximum sustainable yield (MSY) approach: FMSY × SSB (2026)/MSY Btrigger 60167 56835 3332 51493 5342 0.283 0.27 0.014 173194 6.8 -24 -24 5.2
Other scenarios
FMSY lower × SSB (2026)/MSYBtrigger 38328 36230 2098 32824 3406 0.172 0.163 0.009 190394 17.5 -52 -52 1.18
FMSY lower 42383 40059 2324 36293 3766 0.192 0.182 0.01 187176 15.5 -46 -46 1.65
FMSY 66183 62520 3663 56643 5877 0.32 0.3 0.017 168502 4 -16.3 -16.3 7.4
F = 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 221546 37 -100 -100 0.03
FPA 79535 75081 4454 68023 7058 0.392 0.37 0.021 158004 -2.5 0.59 0.59 13.8
SSB (2027) = Blim 117051 110255 6796 99891 10364 0.63 0.6 0.033 130090 -19.7 48 48 50
SSB (2027) = BPA = MSYBtrigger 51240 48422 2818 43870 4552 0.24 0.22 0.012 180770 11.5 -35 -35 2.6
F = F2025 70101 66228 3873 60003 6225 0.34 0.32 0.018 165358 2 -11.3 -11.3 9
TAC2025 79071 74647 4424 67630 7017 0.39 0.37 0.02 158394 -2.3 0 0 13.6
TAC2025 -15% 67210 63479 3731 57512 5967 0.32 0.3 0.017 167681 3.4 -15 -15 7.9
TAC2025 +15% 90932 85756 5176 77695 8061 0.46 0.44 0.024 149193 -8 15 15 22
TAC2025 -20% 63257 59748 3509 54132 5616 0.3 0.28 0.016 170759 5.3 -20 -20 6.3
TAC2025 +25% 98839 93194 5645 84434 8760 0.51 0.48 0.027 143134 -11.7 25 25 30




Symbol Footnotes
* Including below minimum size (BMS) landings, assuming recent discard rate.
** SSB 2027 relative to SSB 2026.
*** The probability of SSB being below Blim in 2027. This probability relates to the short-term probability of SSB < Blim and is not comparable to the long-term probability of SSB < Blim tested in simulations when estimating fishing mortality reference points.
# Total advised catch in 2026 relative to the advice value and TAC in 2025 (both 79 071 tonnes).
## Projected landings split according to the average in 1993–1998, as agreed by the relevant management authorities, i.e., 90.6% in Subarea 4 and Subdivision 3.a.20 and 9.4% in Subarea 6.