Catch scenarios

Basis	Total catch*	Projected landings	Projected discards**	Fprojected landings (ages 2–6)	Spawing-stock biomass (SSB)	% SSB change^	% advice change^^	% total allowable catch (TAC) change^^^
	2026	2026	2026	2026	2027	2027	2026	2026
	(t)	(t)	(t)	(ratio)	(t)	(%)	(%)	(%)
ICES Basis Advice
Maximum sustainable yield (MSY) approach: FMSY	3292	3098	195	0.386	6426	-5.9	36	36
Other scenarios
FMSY upper	3292	3098	195	0.386	6426	-5.9	36	36
FMSY lower	2465	2319	146	0.28	7189	5.2	1.61	1.61
F = 0	0	0	0	0	9521	39	-100	-100
FPA	3292	3098	195	0.386	6426	-5.9	36	36
F = F2025	2313	2176	137	0.26	7331	7.3	-4.7	-4.7
SSB (2027) = Blim	6464	6082	382	0.96	3631	-47	166	166
SSB (2027) = BPA = MSYBtrigger	4823	4538	285	0.63	5046	-26	99	99
Rollover advice	2426	2283	143	0.27	7225	5.8	0	0

Symbol	Footnotes
*	(Projected landings)/(1–average discard rate); average discard rate by weight 2022–2024 = 5.9%.
**	Including below minimum size (BMS) landings. Assuming average discard rate by weight 2022–2024=5.9%.
^	SSB 2027 relative to SSB 2026.
^^	Advice value for 2026 relative to the advice value for 2025 (2 426 tonnes).
^^^	Total advised catch in 2026 relative to the EU–UK agreed catch limit approach for 2025 (2 426 tonnes). This limit reflects the sum of the EU–UK agreed TACs in 2025 (2 410 tonnes), divided by 0.9933 to account for a 0.67% deduction for third-country catches, following the method for projecting third-country catches (EU–UK Joint Committee, 2023).