Catch scenarios

Basis	Total catch	Projected landings	Projected Surviving discards	Projected dead discards	Total projected discards*	Ftotal	Fprojected landings	Fprojected discards**	SSB	% SSB change***	% advice change^	Probability of SSB (2027) lt Blim (%)
	2026	2026	2026	2026	2026	2026	2026	2026	2027	2027	2026	2027
	(t)	(t)	(t)	(t)	(t)	(ratio)	(ratio)	(ratio)	(t)	(%)	(%)	(%)
ICES Basis Advice
MSY approach: F=FMSY × SSB2026/MSY Btrigger	614	138	190	285	476	0.107	0.0194	0.088	5213	8.9	-59	11.2
Other scenarios
FMSY	1081	243	335	503	839	0.196	0.035	0.161	4908	2.5	-28	19.6
FMSY lower × SSB2026/MSY Btrigger	423	95	131	197	328	0.073	0.0132	0.06	5336	11.5	-72	9.2
FMSY upper × SSB2026/MSY Btrigger	898	202	279	418	696	0.16	0.029	0.131	5013	4.7	-40	16.9
F= FMSY lower	753	169	234	350	584	0.133	0.024	0.109	5117	6.9	-50	13.6
F= FMSY upper	1551	348	481	722	1203	0.293	0.053	0.24	4588	-4.2	3.1	29
F= Fpa	2038	457	632	948	1580	0.403	0.073	0.33	4284	-10.5	35	38
F=0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5622	17.4	-100	4.9
SSB2027=Blim	2555	574	793	1189	1982	0.53	0.097	0.44	3958	-17.3	70	50
SSB2027=Bpa	488	110	152	227	379	0.084	0.0153	0.069	5294	10.6	-68	10
SSB2027 = MSYBtrigger^^
Rollover advice	1504	338	467	700	1166	0.28	0.051	0.23	4620	-3.5	0	28
F=F2025	1052	236	326	490	816	0.19	0.034	0.156	4927	2.9	-30	19.1
SSB2027 = SSB2026	1260	283	391	586	977	0.23	0.042	0.19	4788	0	-16.2	23

Symbol	Footnotes
*	Dead + surviving projected discards.
**	Fprojected discards concerns dead projected discards only.
***	SSB 2027 relative to SSB 2026.
^	Advice value for 2026 relative to the advice value for 2025 (1504 tonnes). TAC 2025 was equal to the advice value.
^^	The MSY Btrigger option was left blank because it can not be achieved in 2027, even with zero catch in 2026.