Catch scenarios

Basis	Total catch	Projected landings	Projected discards^	Ftotal (ages 3–7)	Fprojected landings (ages 3–7)	Fprojected discards (ages 3-7)	Spawning-stock biomass (SSB)	% SSB change*	% total allowable catch (TAC) change**	% advice change**	Probability of SSB (2026) < Blim***
	2026	2026	2026	2026	2026	2026	2027	2027	2026	2026	2027
	(t)	(t)	(t)	(ratio)	(ratio)	(ratio)	(t)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)
ICES Basis Advice
Maximum sustainable yield (MSY) approach: FMSY × SSB (2026)/MSY Btrigger	1275	1002	273	0.162	0.126	0.036	11860	7.7	5.5	5.5	35
Other scenarios
FMSYlower× SSB(2026)/ MSYBtrigger	889	699	190	0.11	0.086	0.024	12309	11.8	-26	-26	26
F = 0	0	0	0	0	0	0	13324	21	-100	-100	11.6
FPA	2322	1833	489	0.318	0.25	0.069	10652	-3.2	92	92	62
SSB (2027) = Blim	1873	1475	398	0.248	0.194	0.054	11181	1.56	55	55	50
SSB(2027)=BPA= MSYBtrigger#=
F = F2025	1596	1256	340	0.207	0.162	0.045	11495	4.4	32	32	44
FMSY lower	1235	971	264	0.156	0.122	0.034	11904	8.1	2.2	2.2	34
FMSY	1751	1379	372	0.23	0.18	0.05	11315	2.8	45	45	47

Symbol	Footnotes
*	SSB 2027 relative to SSB 2026.
**	Total advised catch in 2026 relative to the advice value 2025 (both 1209tonnes).
***	The probability of SSB being below Blim in 2027. This probability relates to the short-term probability of SSB < Blim and is not comparable to the long-term probability of SSB < Blim tested in simulations when estimating fishing mortality reference points.
#	BPA and MSY Btrigger cannot be achieved in 2027, even with zero catches.
^	Including below minimum size (BMS) landings, assuming recent discard rate.