Catch scenarios

Basis	Total catch	Projected landings*	Projected discards**	Ftotal	Spawning stock biomass (SSB)	SSB change***	Advice change^	Probability SSB <; Blim^^^
	2026	2026	2026	2026	2027	2027	2026	2027
	(t)	(t)	(t)	(ratio)	(t)	(%)	(%)	(%)
ICES Basis Advice
Maximum sustainable yield (MSY) approach: F = FMSY	16533	10246	6287	0.149	67205	-25	-35	0
Other scenarios
F = 0	0	0	0	0	74253	-8	-100	0
FMSY lower	15286	9478	5808	0.137	67741	-25	-40	0
FMSY upper	16533	10246	6287	0.149	67205	-25	-35	0
F=F2024	4894	3048	1846	0.042	72128	-20	-81	0
Fpa	16533	10246	6287	0.149	67205	-25	-35	0
SSB (2027) = MSYBtrigger^^
20% increase on advised catch for 2025†	28846	17773	11073	0.28	62249	-31	14	0
p(SSB [2027])<;Blim = 5%^^

Symbol	Footnotes
*	Marketable landings, assuming recent discard rate.
**	Including below minimum size (BMS) landings (EU stocks), assuming recent discard rate, including surviving discards.
***	SSB 2027 relative to SSB 2026.
†	Note that the discrepancy between the scenario targeted catch and the actual change in catch are due to the 20% increase being applied to forecasts of landings and dead discards, only. Surviving discards are subsequently calculated from these forecasts.
^	Advice value for 2026 relative to advice value for 2025 (25 365 tonnes; advice for 2025 was summed from the advice for the two stocks merged during the recent benchmark [ICES, 2025a]).
^^	Note that, under the current stock conditions, the target SSB of these scenarios are not achievable within the limits of fishing pressure used in the forecasting procedure.
^^^	The probability of SSB being below Blim in 2027. This probability relates to the short-term probability of SSB <; Blim and is not comparable to the long-term probability of SSB <; Blim tested in simulations when estimating fishing mortality reference points