Advice and Scenarios Database



Herring (Clupea harengus) in subdivisions 25-29 and 32, excluding the Gulf of Riga (central Baltic Sea)
StockCode (Assessment Component)
her.27.25-2932
Assessment Year
2025
Stock Category
1
Purpose
Advice
Published
Stock Assessment Key
19714
Link to Advice Sheet
https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.advice.27202617.v1






Catch scenarios


Basis
Total catch
Fishing mortality F2026/FMSY
Spawning-stock biomass (SSB)2027/MSY Btrigger
SSB change**
Advice change***
Probability of SSB (2027)<;Blim*
Probability of SSB (2027) <; MSYBtrigger*
2026 2026 2027 2027 2026 2027 2027
(t) (ratio) (t) (%) (%) (%) (%)
ICES Basis Advice
EU multiannual plan (MAP)^: F = FMSY × SSB2026/MSY Btrigger 157996 0.8 0.89 11.8 26 8.1 63
EU MAP^: F = MAP range Flower × SSB2026/MSY Btrigger 120378 0.6 0.92 15.7 26 5.9 59
Other scenarios
F = 0 0 0 1.02 28 -100 1.44 48
FMSY 192604 1 0.86 8.3 54 10.6 66
Flower 148215 0.75 0.9 12.9 18.2 7.5 62
Fupper 227965 1.21 0.83 4.6 82 13.2 70
EU MAP^: F=MAP range Fupper × SSB2026/MSY Btrigger 188090 0.97 0.86 8.7 50 10.2 66
SSB (2027)=Blim^^
SSB (2027)=BPA 18809 0.089 1 26 -85 1.89 50
SSB (2027)=MSYBtrigger 18809 0.089 1 26 -85 1.89 50
SSB (2027)=SSB (2026) 263326 1.43 0.8 1.05 110 16.1 73
F=F2025 126396 0.63 0.91 15.1 0.84 6.2 60
p(SSB(2027)<;Blim)=5% 103073 0.51 0.93 17.5 -17.8 5 58




Symbol Footnotes
* The probability of SSB being below SSB reference points in 2027. This probability relates to the short-term probability of SSB <; Blim and MSY Btrigger and is not comparable to the long-term probability of SSB <; Blim and MSY Btrigger tested in simulations when estimating fishing mortality reference points.
** SSB 2027 relative to SSB 2026.
*** Advice values for 2026 relative to the corresponding values for 2025 (EU MAP advice of 125 344[FMSY], 95 340 [Flower] tonnes, and 148 932 [Fupper] respectively, all other values relative to 125 344).
^ MAP multiannual plan (EU, 2016, 2019, 2020).
^^ Note that, under the current stock conditions, the target SSB of these scenarios are not achievable within the limits of fishing pressure in the forecasting procedure (F range up to 1.26).