Herring (Clupea harengus) in Subdivision 28.1 (Gulf of Riga)

StockCode (Assessment Component)

her.27.28

Assessment Year

2025

Stock Category

Purpose

Advice

Published

Stock Assessment Key

20931

Link to Advice Sheet

https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.advice.27202620

Status: valid

Advice Component

Advice Category*

Advice Type*

Advice Unit*

AdviceValue*

Advice Value Lower Range

Advice Value Upper Range

Wanted Catch

Wanted Catch Lower Range

Wanted Catch Upper Range

Advice Sentence*

ICES advises that when the EU multiannual plan (MAP) for the Baltic Sea is applied, the catches in 2026 that correspond to the F ranges in the plan are between 23 962 tonnes and 35 643 tonnes. According to the MAP, catches higher than those corresponding to FMSY (30 913 tonnes) can be taken only under conditions specified in the plan, while the entire range is considered precautionary when applying the ICES advice rule.
ICES advises that when the EU multiannual plan (MAP) for the Baltic Sea is applied, the catches in 2026 that correspond to the F ranges in the plan are between 23 962 tonnes and 35 643 tonnes. According to the MAP, catches higher than those corresponding to FMSY (30 913 tonnes) can be taken only under conditions specified in the plan, while the entire range is considered precautionary when applying the ICES advice rule.

The fishery for Gulf of Riga herring includes fish from central Baltic herring, which is below MSY Btrigger. To be consistent with ICES advice, catches of central Baltic herring should be no more than 157 996 tonnes. The above advice corresponds to catches of herring in subdivision 28.1 of no more than 34 367 tonnes (corresponding to FMSY) in 2026, assuming the same proportion of the Gulf of Riga herring and central Baltic herring stocks is taken in subdivision 28.1 as was estimated for 2020–2024.

Advice Released Date*

Advice Applicable From*

Advice Applicable Until*

TAF Link

Management Alignment

MP WebLink

Management Plan Ownership

Link To Evaluation

Inquiries or Comments?

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Catch scenarios

Basis	Total catch	F	Spawning stock biomass (SSB) #	SSB #	SSB change**	Advice change***,^,^^	Probability SSB <; Blim^^^
	2026	2026	2026	2027	2027	2026	2027
	(t)	(ratio)	(t)	(t)	(%)	(%)	(%)
ICES Basis Advice
EU multiannual plan (MAP)*: FMSY	30913	0.28	112151	114902	2.5	-21	0.9
EU MAP*: MAP range Flower	23962	0.21	113292	121985	7.7	-21	0.3
EU MAP*: MAP range Fupper	35643	0.33	111034	109672	-1.2	-21	1.3
Other scenarios
F=0	0	0	117574	148454	26	-100	0
F=FPA	37472	0.35	110642	107803	-2.6	-4.5	1.5
SSB (2026)=SSB (2027)	34078	0.31	111445	111445	0	-13.1	1.1
SSB (2027)=Blim	94173	1.24	95123	52076	-45	140	50
SSB (2027)=BPA = MSY Btrigger	72190	0.81	102124	72907	-29	84	21
F=F2025	37018	0.35	110739	109593	-1.03	-5.6	1.3
p(SSB[2027] <;Blim)=5%	52093	0.52	107358	92391	-13.9	33	5

Symbol	Footnotes
*	MAP (EU, 2016, 2019, 2020).
**	SSB 2027 relative to SSB 2026.
***	Total catch in 2026 relative to ICES advice for 2025 (39233tonnes for the Gulf of Riga herring stock).
#	For spring-spawning stocks, SSB is determined at spawning time and is influenced by fisheries between 01 January and spawning (set for May).
^	ICES advice for Flower for 2026 relative to ICES advice for EU MAP range Flower for 2025 (30394 tonnes).
^^	ICES advice for Fupper for 2026 relative to ICES advice for EU MAP range Fupper for 2025 (45235tonnes).
^^^	The probability of SSB being below Blim in 2027. This probability relates to the short-term probability of SSB <; Blim and is not comparable to the long-term probability of SSB <; Blim tested in simulations when estimating fishing mortality reference points.