Catch scenarios

Basis	Total catch	Projected landings	Projected discard	Projected recreational removals *	F total	SSB	% SSB change**	% TAC change ***	% probability of SSB <; Blim
	2026	2026	2026	2026	2026	2027	2027	2026	2027
	(t)	(t)	(t)	(t)	(ratio)	(t)	(%)	(%)	(%)
ICES Basis Advice
MSY approach: FMSY × SSB2026/MSY Btrigger	200	27	153	20	0.122	2109	56	-72	6.2
Other scenarios
FMSY	333	45	255	33	0.21	1975	46	-54	14.4
Fpa	1021	138	781	102	0.78	1333	-1.19	42	88
F=0	0	0	0	0	0	2309	71	-100	1.4
FMSYlower	259	35	198	26	0.16	2052	52	-64	9.8
FMSYlower×SSB2026/MSYBtrigger	154	21	118	15	0.093	2155	60	-79	4.3
SSB2027=Blim	646	87	494	65	0.44	1670	24	-10.4	50
SSB2027=MSY Btrigger = Bpa^
SSB2027=SSB2026	1001	135	765	100	0.76	1349	0	39	86
F=F2024	1107	150	847	111	0.87	1258	-6.8	54	93

Symbol	Footnotes
*	Recreational estimates are based on the proportion of catches attributed to recreational removals in 2024 (10%).
**	SSB 2027 relative to SSB 2026.
***	Total advice in 2026 relative to the TAC in 2025 (721tonnes).
^	The MSYBtrigger and Bpa option was left blank because it can not be achieved in 2027, even with zero catch in 2026.