Catch scenarios

Basis	Total catch	F total	Spawning-stock biomass	% SSB change*	% total allowable catch (TAC) change**	% advice change***
	2026	2026	2027	2027	2026	2026
	(t)	(ratio)	(t)	(%)	(%)	(%)
ICES Basis Advice
Management plan^	164149	0.33	293381	-11.3	-15	-15
Other scenarios
F=0	0	0	427126	29	-100	-100
F=Fsq	170090	0.35	288702	-12.8	-11.9	-11.9

Symbol	Footnotes
*	SSB 2027 relative to SSB 2026.
**	Catch advice in 2026 relative to TAC in 2025 (193 117tonnes).
***	Catch advice in 2026 relative to the advice value for 2025 (193 117 tonnes).
^	Catch advice is based on an average of a three-year catch forecast using FMP. The relevant predicted catches are 158180 tonnes (2026), 152 346 tonnes (2027), and 152 988 tonnes (2028), which give an average of 154505 tonnes. A quota based on this average would imply a change in TAC of more than 15%. Therefore the ±15% reduction cap in TAC was applied, which resulted in a TAC recommendation of 164149 tonnes.