Advice and Scenarios Database



Northern shrimp (Pandalus borealis) in divisions 3.a and 4.a East (Skagerrak and Kattegat and northern North Sea in the Norwegian Deep)
StockCode (Assessment Component)
pra.27.3a4a
Assessment Year
2025
Stock Category
1
Purpose
Advice
Published
Stock Assessment Key
20960
Link to Advice Sheet
https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.advice.27202809.v1






Catch scenarios


Basis
Total catch
Ftotal/FMSY
SSB/MSY Btrigger
SSB/ Blim
% probability^ of SSB <;Blim
% SSB change*
% total allowable catch (TAC) change **
% advice change***
2025 2025 2026 2026 2026 2026 2025 2025
(t) (ratio) (ratio) (ratio) (%) (%) (%) (%)
ICES Basis Advice
Long-term management plan: F2025 = Fmgt × (SSB2025/Bmgt) 4010 0.45 0.56 1 49 52 -12 -12
Other scenarios
F2025=0 0 0 0.67 1.2 7.4 82 -100 -100
F2025 = FPA 9023 1.13 0.43 0.77 91 17.3 98 98
F2025 = F2024 6927 0.83 0.48 0.87 80 32 52 52
SSB2026=Blim 4056 0.46 0.56 1 50 52 -11 -11
SSB2026=BPA=MSY Btrigger^^




Symbol Footnotes
* SSB2026/MSYBtrigger relative to predicted SSB2025/MSYBtrigger.
** Advised catch in 2025 relative to TAC in 2024 (4 557tonnes).
*** Advised catch in 2025 relative to advised catch in 2024 (4 557tonnes).
^ Note that this probability relates to the short-term probability of SSB<; Blim and is not comparable to the long-term probability of SSB<;Blim tested in simulations when estimating fishing mortality reference points.
^^ BPA and MSY Btrigger cannot be achieved in 2026, even with zero catches.