Catch scenarios

Basis	Total catch	Projected landings	Projected discards	Ftotal	Fprojected landings	Fprojected discards	SSB	% SSB change *	% advice change**	% probability of being below Blim in 2027^
	2026	2026	2026	2026	2026	2026	2027	2027	2026	2027
	(t)	(t)	(t)	(ratio)	(ratio)	(ratio)	(t)	(%)	(%)	(%)
ICES Basis Advice
Maximum sustainable yield (MSY) approach: FMSY × SSB (2026)/MSY Btrigger	5364	2809	2555	0.21	0.079	0.131	23970	-6.2	4.8	13.5
Other scenarios
MSY approach: FMSY lower × SSB (2026) /MSY Btrigger	4494	2354	2140	0.173	0.065	0.108	24771	-3	-12.2	11
F=0	0	0	0	0	0	0	28825	12.9	-100	2.8
F= FMSY	5374	2815	2559	0.21	0.079	0.131	23960	-6.2	5	13.5
F= FMSY lower	4503	2359	2144	0.173	0.065	0.108	24764	-3	-12	11
F= FPA	5374	2815	2559	0.21	0.079	0.131	23960	-6.2	5	13.5
SSB (2027)=Blim	13044	6756	6288	0.6	0.23	0.38	17286	-32	155	50
SSB(2027)=BPA=MSYBtrigger	3591	1888	1703	0.136	0.051	0.085	25597	0.22	-30	8.6
SSB (2027)=SSB (2026)	3652	1920	1732	0.138	0.052	0.086	25542	0	-29	8.7
F=F2025	836	442	394	0.03	0.011	0.019	28029	9.7	-84	3.5

Symbol	Footnotes
*	SSB 2027 relative to SSB 2026.
**	Advice value for 2026 relative to the corresponding 2025 value (5 116 tonnes).
^	The probability of SSB being below Blim in 2027. This probability relates to the short-term probability of SSB <; Blim and is not comparable to the long-term probability of SSB <; Blim tested in simulations when estimating fishing mortality reference points.