Advice and Scenarios Database



Cod (Gadus morhua) in divisions 7.e-k (eastern English Channel and southern Celtic Seas)
StockCode (Assessment Component)
cod.27.7e-k
Assessment Year
2025
Stock Category
1
Purpose
Advice
Published
Stock Assessment Key
21016
Link to Advice Sheet
https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.advice.27202578.v1






Catch scenarios


Basis
Total catch
F total
Spawning-stock biomass (SSB)
% SSB change*
% total allowable catch (TAC) change**
Probability of SSB (2027) <; Blim (%)
2026 2026 2027 2027 2026 2027
(t) (ratio) (t) (%) (%) (%)
ICES Basis Advice
Maximum sustainable yield (MSY) approach: F = 0 0 0 1506 309 -100 97
Other scenarios
FMSY×SSB2026/MSYBtrigger 17 0.0184 1480 303 -97 97
EU MAP***: FMSYlower×SSB2026/MSYBtrigger 10 0.0108 1490 305 -98 97
EU MAP***: FMSYupper×SSB2026/MSYBtrigger 24 0.026 1471 300 -96 97
F = FMSY 236 0.29 1158 215 -63 100
F = FMSY lower 146 0.17 1289 251 -77 99
F = FMSY upper 318 0.41 1041 183 -50 100
F = FPA 522 0.77 761 107 -19 100
SSB2027 = SSB2026 837 1.66 368 0 30 100
F = F2025 652 1.07 590 60 1.27 100
SSB2027 =Blim^
SSB2027= BPA=MSYBtrigger^




Symbol Footnotes
* SSB2027 relative to SSB2026.
** Total catch in 2026 relative to 2025 TAC (644 tonnes).
*** EU multiannual plan (MAP) for the Western Waters (EU, 2019).
^ The Blim, BPA, and MSYBtrigger options were left blank because none of them can be achieved in 2027, even with zero catch in 2026.
^^ The probability of SSB being below Blim in 2027. This probability relates to the short-term probability of SSB <; Blim and is not comparable to the long-term probability of SSB <; Blim tested in simulations when estimating fishing mortality reference points.