Catch scenarios

Basis	Total catch	Projected landings	Projected discards	Ftotal	Fprojected landings	Fprojected discards	Spawning-stock biomass (SSB)	% SSB change *	% advice change^	Probability of SSB (2027) <; Blim (%)^^
	2026	2026	2026	2026	2026	2026	2027	2027	2026	2027
	(t)	(t)	(t)	(ratio)	(ratio)	(ratio)	(t)	(%)	(%)	(%)
ICES Basis Advice
Maximum sustainable yield (MSY) approach: F = FMSY	20432	19500	932	0.28	0.25	0.03	86025	-9.2	-35	0
Other scenarios
EU MAP**: FMSY	20432	19500	932	0.28	0.25	0.03	86025	-9.2	-35	0
EU MAP**: FMSYlower	14060	13442	618	0.184	0.164	0.0197	92801	-2.1	-55	0
EU MAP**: FMSYupper	28050	26780	1270	0.41	0.37	0.044	77634	-18.1	-11.1	0
F = 0	0	0	0	0	0	0	107775	13.7	-100	0
FPA	28605	27304	1301	0.42	0.38	0.045	77073	-18.7	-9.4	0
F = F2025	4782	4588	194	0.059	0.053	0.0063	102587	8.3	-85	0
SSB2027 = Blim	98033	90464	7569	7.6	6.8	0.82	8542	-91	211	50
SSB2027 = Bpa	93329	86976	6353	5	4.4	0.54	11870	-87	196	33
SSB2027 = MSYBtrigger	92083	85903	6180	4.5	4.1	0.49	12877	-86	192	29
SSB2027 = SSB2026	12341	11824	517	0.159	0.142	0.0171	94765	0	-61	0

Symbol	Footnotes
*	SSB 2027 relative to SSB 2026.
**	EU multiannual plan (MAP) for the Western Waters (EU, 2019).
^	Total catch advice for 2026 relative to the advice for 2025 (31 565tonnes).
^^	The probability of SSB being below Blim in 2027. This probability relates to the short-term probability of SSB <; Blim and is not comparable to the long-term probability of SSB <; Blim tested in simulations when estimating fishing mortality reference points.