Advice and Scenarios Database



Pollack (Pollachius pollachius) in subareas 6-7 (Celtic Seas and the English Channel)
StockCode (Assessment Component)
pol.27.67
Assessment Year
2025
Stock Category
1
Purpose
Advice
Published
Stock Assessment Key
20987
Link to Advice Sheet
https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.advice.27202803.v1






Catch scenarios


Basis
Total removals
Projected commercial landings
Projected recreational removals
Fages 3–7 total*
Fages 3–7 projected commercial landings
Fages 3–7 Projected recreational removals (2026)
Spawning-stock biomass (SSB)
% SSB change ***
Probability SSB <; Blim in 2027 (%) ^
2026 2026 2026 2026 2026 2026 2027 2027 2027
(t) (t) (t) (ratio) (ratio) (ratio) (t) (%) (%)
ICES Basis Advice
Maximum sustainable yield (MSY) approach: FMSY × SSB (2026)/MSY Btrigger 3310 1085 2225 0.24 0.091 0.149 13077 -4.5 46
Other scenarios
FMSY lower × SSB (2026)/MSY Btrigger 2386 784 1603 0.168 0.064 0.104 13895 1.5 21
F = 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 16028 17.1 1
F = Fpa = FMSY 4195 1373 2822 0.315 0.119 0.196 12300 -10.2 71
F = FMSY lower 3052 1001 2051 0.22 0.083 0.137 13305 -2.8 37
SSB (2027) = Blim 3523 1155 2368 0.26 0.098 0.16 12890 -5.8 50
SSB (2027) = MSYBtrigger = Bpa^^
F = F2025 2350 772 1578 0.165 0.063 0.103 13927 1.74 20




Symbol Footnotes
* Includes commercial landings and recreational removals.
** Assumed projections based on 2024 proportions of partial F of commercial and recreational removals.
*** SSB 2027 relative to SSB 2026.
^ The probability of SSB being below Blim in 2027. This probability relates to the short-term probability of SSB <; Blim and is not comparable to the long-term probability of SSB<;Blim tested in simulations when estimating fishing mortality reference points. Uncertainty of modelled recruitment in 2023 and 2024 is underestimated, which increases the uncertainty of the probability estimation.
^^ The MSY Btrigger option was left blank because it cannot be achieved in 2027, even with zero catch in 2026.