Catch scenarios

Basis	Total catch	Projected landings	Projected discards	Ftotal	F projected landings	Fprojected discards	Spawning-stock biomass (SSB)	% SSB change*	% advice change^	Probability of SSB (2027) <; Blim (%)^^
	2026	2026	2026	2026	2026	2026	2027	2027	2026	2027
	(t)	(t)	(t)	(ratio)	(ratio)	(ratio)	(t)	(%)	(%)	(%)
ICES Basis Advice
Maximum sustainable yield (MSY) approach: F = FMSY	545	472	73	0.164	0.129	0.035	4264	-2	-10.5	0.04
Other scenarios
F = FMSY lower	422	366	56	0.125	0.098	0.027	4370	0.41	-31	0.02
F = FMSY upper	603	522	81	0.183	0.144	0.039	4213	-3.2	-0.99	0.07
F = 0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4773	9.7	-100	0
F = FPA	603	522	81	0.183	0.144	0.039	4213	-3.2	-0.99	0.07
SSB2027=Blim	2969	2536	433	1.45	1.14	0.31	2235	-49	390	50
SSB2027=Bpa =MSYBtrigger	1885	1623	262	0.71	0.56	0.151	3129	-28	210	13.1
SSB2027=SSB2026	442	383	59	0.131	0.103	0.028	4352	0	-27	0.02
F =F2025	399	346	53	0.118	0.093	0.025	4389	0.85	-34	0.01

Symbol	Footnotes
*	SSB 2027 relative to SSB 2026.
^	Advice value for 2026 relative to the corresponding 2025 value (609tonnes). The 2025 total allowable catch (TAC) is similar to the advice value.
^^	The probability of SSB being below Blim in 2027. This probability relates to the short-term probability of SSB <; Blim and is not comparable to the long-term probability of SSB <; Blim tested in simulations when estimating fishing mortality reference points.