Advice and Scenarios Database



Horse mackerel (Trachurus trachurus) in Division 9.a (Atlantic Iberian waters)
StockCode (Assessment Component)
hom.27.9a
Assessment Year
2025
Stock Category
1
Purpose
Advice
Published
Stock Assessment Key
20986
Link to Advice Sheet
https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.advice.27202659






Catch scenarios


Basis
Catches
F
Spawning-stock biomass (SSB)
% SSB change*
% catch change**
% advice change***
Probability of SSB falling below Blim in 2027^
2026 2026 2027 2027 2026 2026 2027
(t) (ratio) (t) (%) (%) (%) (ratio)
ICES Basis Advice
Maximum sustainable yield (MSY) approach: FMSY 56520 0.115 520214 -2 188 -5 0.001
Other scenarios
F=0 0 0 576041 8 -100 -100 0.001
F=F2024 21321 0.042 554936 4 9 -64 0.001
F=F2024×1.2 25481 0.05 550824 4 30 -57 0.001
F=F2024×1.6 33698 0.067 542708 2 72 -43 0.001
F=F2024×2.0 41782 0.084 534733 1 113 -30 0.001
Fpa 70664 0.146 506307 -5 260 19 0.001
SSB (2027)=Blim 392120 1.313 201000 -62 1898 562 0.5
SSB (2027)=Bpa = MSYBtrigger 307120 0.87 279000 -47 1465 418 0.045




Symbol Footnotes
* SSB 2027 relative to SSB 2026 (531 281 tonnes).
** Advised catches in 2026 relative to ICES estimates of catches in 2024 (19 628 tonnes).
*** Advised catches for 2026 relative to the advised catches for 2025 (59 266 tonnes).
^ The probability of SSB being below Blim in 2027. This probability relates to the short-term probability of SSB <; Blim and is not comparable to the long-term probability of SSB <; Blim tested in simulations when estimating fishing mortality reference points.