Advice and Scenarios Database



Herring (Clupea harengus) in subareas 1, 2, 5 and divisions 4.a and 14.a, Norwegian spring-spawning herring (the Northeast Atlantic and Arctic Ocean)
StockCode (Assessment Component)
her.27.1-24a514a
Assessment Year
2025
Stock Category
1
Purpose
Advice
Published
Stock Assessment Key
21106
Link to Advice Sheet
https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.advice.27202611






Catch scenarios


Basis
Total catch
F
SSB
% SSB change*
% catch change**
% advice change***
% probability of falling below Blim in 2027
2026 2026 2027 2027 2026 2026 2027
(t) (ratio) (t) (%) (%) (%) (%)
ICES Basis Advice
Agreed management strategy^ 533914 0.123 3823805 27 23 33 0.5
Other scenarios
MSY approach: FMSY × SSB2026/MSYBtrigger 828441 0.199 3602227 19.6 90 106 1.8
F=0 0 0 4241460 41 -100 -100 0
Fpa 867569 0.21 3570721 18.5 99 116 2
SSB2027=Blim^^ 2473739 0.78 2286000 -24 470 520 50
SSB2027=Bpa=MSYBtrigger^^ 1308259 0.33 3177000 5.5 200 230 10.8
F=F2025 593409 0.138 3779317 25 36 48 1.1




Symbol Footnotes
* SSB2027 relative to SSB2026 (3012000tonnes)
** Catch in 2026 relative to ICES estimated catch in 2025 (435 010tonnes).
*** Advice value 2026 relative to advice value 2025 (401 794tonnes).
^ According to the harvest control rule in the management strategy F(2026)= 0.123, since the SSB is forecasted to be between SSBmgt and SSBmgt lower on 1 January 2026.
^^ SSB2027 values are the closest available approximation to Blim and the estimated MSY Btrigger.