Advice and Scenarios Database



Horse mackerel (Trachurus trachurus) in Subarea 8 and divisions 2.a, 3.a, 4.a, 5.b, 6.a, 7.a–c, and 7.e–k (Northeast Atlantic and adjacent waters)
StockCode (Assessment Component)
hom.27.2a3a4a5b6a7a-ce-k8
Assessment Year
2025
Stock Category
1
Purpose
Advice
Published
Stock Assessment Key
21144






Catch scenarios


Basis
Total catch
F
SSB
% SSB change*
% advice change**
% probability SSB less than Blim in 2027***
2026 2026 2027 2027 2026 2027
(t) (ratio) (t) (%) (%) (%)
ICES Basis Advice
MSY approach: F = FMSY 74214 0.08 843086 -1.45 -1.8 2.1
Other scenarios
F=Fpa 74214 0.08 843086 -1.45 -1.8 2.1
F=0 0 0 911088 6.5 -100 0.94
F=F2025 74741 0.081 842604 -1.51 -1.1 2.1
SSB2027=MSYBtrigger=Bpa 135429 0.15 787443 -8 79 4.3
SSB2027=Blim 384203 0.55 566678 -34 410 50




Symbol Footnotes
* SSB2027 relative to SSB2026 (855 517 tonnes).
** Advice value for 2026 relative to advice value for 2025 (75 545 tonnes).
*** The percentage probability of SSB being below Blim in 2027. This probability relates to the short-term probability of SSB <; Blim and is not comparable to the long-term probability of SSB <; Blim tested in simulations when estimating fishing mortality reference points.