Advice and Scenarios Database



Mackerel (Scomber scombrus) in subareas 1-8 and 14 and Division 9.a (the Northeast Atlantic and adjacent waters)
StockCode (Assessment Component)
mac.27.nea
Assessment Year
2025
Stock Category
1
Purpose
Advice
Published
Stock Assessment Key
21166
Link to Advice Sheet
https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.advice.27202689






Catch scenarios


Basis
Total catch
Fages 4–8
Fages 4–8
SSB at spawning time
SSB at spawning time
Change in SSB*
Change in Catch**
Change in Advice***
Probability of SSB(2027) less than Blim
2026 2026 2027 2026 2027 2027 2026 2026 2027
(t) (ratio) (ratio) (t) (t) (%) (%) (%) (ratio)
ICES Basis Advice
SSB2027 = Blim 174357 0.072 0.072 2752834 3067887 11.4 -77 -70 50
Other scenarios
F2026 = FMSY * SSB2025/ MSY Btrigger 299010 0.127 0.127 2732223 2964353 8.5 -60 -48 57
F = FMSY = Fpa 435390 0.191 0.191 2708199 2848254 5.2 -42 -25 65
F = 0 0 0 0 2781516 3224181 15.9 -100 -100 39
Catch2026 = catch2025 - 20% 604114 0.27 0.27 2676229 2710274 1.27 -20 4.7 73
Catch2026 = catch2025 755143 0.36 0.36 2646111 2588554 -2.2 0 31 79
Catch2026 = catch2025 + 25% 943928 0.47 0.47 2605601 2438883 -6.4 25 64 85
F = F2025 630387 0.29 0.29 2671278 2685274 0.52 -16.5 9.3 75
SSB2027 = Bpa^^
p(SSB2027<;Blim) = 5%^^




Symbol Footnotes
* SSB2027 relative to SSB2026.
** Catch in 2026 relative to estimated catches in 2025 (755 143 tonnes). There is no internationally agreed TAC for 2025.
*** Advice value for 2026 relative to the advice value for 2025 (576 958 tonnes).
^ The probability of SSB being below Blim in 2027. This probability relates to the short-term probability of SSB <; Blim and is not comparable to the long-term probability of SSB <; Blim tested in simulations when estimating fishing mortality reference points.
^^ These options cannot be achieved even with 0 catch in 2026.