Catch scenarios

Basis	Total catch	Spawning-stock biomass (SSB)*	Fage2	% SSB change**	% total allowable catch (TAC) change^	% advice change^^	Probability SSB less than Blim^^^
	2026	2026	2026	2026	2026	2026	2026
	(t)	(t)	(ratio)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(ratio)
ICES Basis Advice
Harvest control rule in the management plan	33000	113472	0.25	-5	8	8	0.0495
Other scenarios
F=0	0	124457	0	4	-100	-100	0.0429
F=F2025 x 0.5	18132	118480	0.134	-1	-41	-41	0.0463
F=F2025	34913	112820	0.27	-6	14	14	0.05
Catch2026=33000	33000	113472	0.25	-5	8	8	0.0495
P(SSB2026 <;Bpa)=0.05***
P(SSB2026<;Blim)=0.05	35035	112779	0.27	-6	14	14	0.05
SSB2026=Bpa	208076	43600	3	-64	579	579	0.2341
SSB2026=Blim	241081	26600	4.5	-78	686	686	0.5

Symbol	Footnotes
*	SSB corresponds to mid-May estimate, with 79% of the catch assumed to be taken in the first six months of the year (average percentage from 2022–2024).
**	SSB (2026) relative to SSB (2025).
***	This scenario not likely to be achieved in 2026 even with zero catch.
^	Catch (2026) relative to the 2025 TAC (30 663tonnes).
^^	Advice for 2026 relative to advice for 2025 (30 663tonnes).
^^^	The probability of SSB being below Blim in 2026. This probability relates to the short-term probability of SSB <; Blim and is not comparable to the long-term probability of SSB <; Blim tested in simulations when estimating fishing mortality reference points.